The market has long voted with its feet: after the interest rate cut in October, gold, US stocks, and US bonds all plummeted, with nearly 130,000 people in crypto assets getting liquidated. The yield on the two-year US Treasury surged to 3.59%, and the dollar index rose in the short-term. As expectations for a rate cut in December cool, the future movement of assets appears even more uncertain—institutions predict that US tech stocks may still have support, but sensitive varieties such as crypto assets and gold may continue to fluctuate. Key variables are still hidden in the data: due to the government shutdown leading to the interruption of employment reports, the Federal Reserve is in a "data blind flight" state, and the employment data for October-November will become the core basis for the December decision. Coupled with Powell's cautious stance before stepping down in May next year, as well as the voter backlash triggered by inflation pressures, this round of interest rate cuts is destined to be "slow and tortuous," with long-term interest rate targets possibly locked in at around 3.0%. The current market should be cautious of the "expectation gap sell-off": If interest rate cuts are indeed paused in December, funds that previously bet on easing may accelerate their withdrawal. It is recommended to focus on interest rate-sensitive sectors such as U.S. real estate and banking stocks, while crypto assets and gold should wait for clear signals, and do not blindly follow the trend to bottom fish! #十二月降息预测 #美联储降息展望 $XRP