The Link Between Hormuz and Bitcoin Means "Game Over" for XRP? This Is What Analysts Say The Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for about 20% of the world's oil flow, is now at the center of a broader debate that goes beyond mere geopolitics. The situation there has brought Bitcoin and XRP into a real test of how cryptocurrencies function during conflicts. Amid a fragile ceasefire in April, some reports mention Iran demanding a fee of around US$1 per barrel from tankers passing through the strait. Payments are reportedly requested in Bitcoin or yuan, adding a new dimension to how sanctions and trade routes intersect. Bitcoin Enters the World's Most Strategic Oil Route Bitcoin quickly became the main focus in this issue. According to the report, the IRGC enforces payment rules with very short notice, making it difficult to trace under Western sanctions. For supertankers, this fee could reach US$2,000,000, or about 281 BTC. However, some parties still doubt this news. Arthur Hayes openly questions the claim, stating he will only believe it after seeing verifiable on-chain transactions linked to specific ships. Until then, he considers it might just be a rumor or message, not reality. So far, there is no clear on-chain evidence related to these payments. Still, this narrative alone has pushed Bitcoin's price back above US$70,000. This incident reinforces an evolving perspective. During crises, Bitcoin acts as a neutral settlement tool that operates outside the traditional financial system. The XRP Story: Designed for Peace, Not Crisis At the same time, this situation sparks debate within the XRP community. Analyst Fran de Olza states that the narrative around Bitcoin is shifting again. He believes the narrative has moved from retail payments to a store of value, and now toward use for settling large transactions, such as in Hormuz. He highlights that terms like “neutral settlement” and “borderless money” are now frequently used, even by Bitcoin supporters. However, he claims XRP has been in this space longer, with years of development focused on institutional payments and cross-border settlements. De Olza suggests that if a new global financial agreement is formed, similar to a modern Bretton Woods system, many might realize they are actually describing XRP's role, even if they think Bitcoin will occupy it. Yet, other analysts offer a more realistic view. Bitcoin's strength in this case lies in its resistance to censorship. Iran's main priority isn't efficiency but bypassing systems like SWIFT and the US dollar directly. That’s why Bitcoin is highly useful in sovereignty-focused scenarios. Conversely, XRP was created for regulated financial systems and large-scale operations during stable times. XRP prioritizes institutional settlement, compliance, and integration with banking infrastructure. Bitcoin addresses urgent, high-pressure situations, while XRP is designed to support long-term financial pathways. Both can succeed without necessarily replacing each other. By 2026, the crypto market will be increasingly multichain, with Bitcoin serving as a reserve and crisis tool, while XRP focuses on institutional settlement. For now, as tankers wait and analysts debate, one thing is clear. Crypto is no longer just a speculative market. Now, digital assets are beginning to become an essential part of power, trade, and finance in a fragmented global system. #GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge #MetaReleasesMuseSpark #FDICReleasesStablecoinGuidanceDraft

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Crypto Daily(04.10): Bitcoin prices highly tied to geopolitical situations and oil prices, Iran promotes BTC payments for oil transit fees 1. Bitcoin Price Trends and Market Analysis 1. Recent Bitcoin prices are directly affected by US-Iran geopolitical conflicts and oil price fluctuations, with high volatility: optimistic ceasefire sentiments have pushed BTC past $70k and $72k multiple times. If the ceasefire breaks down and oil prices rise, BTC faces a correction pressure, with its trend closely linked to global risk appetite and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. 2. Market institutions have clear disagreements on future trends: bullish views believe that if oil prices continue to fall, prompting the Fed to cut rates early, combined with $6 billion short positions in the $72,000-$73.5k range, a breakout could trigger chain liquidations, pushing BTC to $80k; on-chain data also shows short-term traders are exiting while long-term holders continue accumulating, building momentum for future rises. 3. Bearish opinions suggest that if BTC cannot hold above $75k, it may fall back to $10k, as market confidence remains fragile. Short-term technicals show BTC's current volatility range is between $69k and $73k, with support around $69,000 and key resistance at $73,000-$76k. Investors should watch for breakthroughs and support levels at these critical points, as short-term volatility risks remain high. 2. Bitcoin ETF and Traditional Institutional Deployment Trends 1. Morgan Stanley's new Bitcoin ETF MSBT performed well on its debut, with approximately $30.6 million in inflows. This ETF charges a 0.14% fee, making it the lowest-cost spot Bitcoin ETF in the US market, leveraging Morgan Stanley’s extensive wealth advisory network for channel advantages. 2. Recently, overall crypto ETF funds have been flowing out: on April 7, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $159 million, Ethereum ETFs about $64.67 million, with only smaller tokens like Ripple experiencing small net inflows, reflecting market confidence remains fragile. 3. Major financial institutions continue to push crypto adoption: Charles Schwab plans to pilot spot BTC and ETH trading in Q2 2026, CME Group plans to launch new crypto futures in May, indicating increasing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin. 3. Strategic Use of Bitcoin in Geopolitics 1. During the US-Iran ceasefire, Iran announced that oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz would pay tolls in Bitcoin, charging $1 per barrel of oil, using Bitcoin’s peer-to-peer, untraceable features to evade US financial sanctions. Empty oil tankers can pass freely without charge. 2. This event marks the first time a sovereign country has used cryptocurrency as a strategic tool in geopolitical games, breaking the notion of crypto solely as a financial asset. It signifies that crypto technology has officially entered national-level geopolitical finance practices and also reflects cracks forming in the traditional petrodollar system. 4. Changes in Bitcoin Holdings by Various Entities 1. Bhutan continues to sell off Bitcoin reserves accumulated through national hydroelectric mining. As of April 2026, holdings have decreased from about 13k BTC at the end of 2024 to less than 4,000 BTC, with a total outflow of over 9,000 BTC. Bhutan remains the fifth-largest sovereign holder of Bitcoin globally. 2. Long-term bullish Bitcoin supporter MicroStrategy continues to increase holdings, recently investing an additional $330 million to buy BTC. Through issuing preferred stock, Strategy can raise extra funds to purchase over 2,500 BTC; meanwhile, mining firm Core Scientific plans to liquidate nearly all its Bitcoin reserves by 2026 to fund AI transformation. 5. Bitcoin Security and Risk Events 1. Bitcoin ATM operator Bitcoin Depot was hacked, with hackers infiltrating the system and stealing about 50.9 BTC, worth approximately $3.66 million. The incident did not affect user platforms or data. The company has initiated emergency response and notified law enforcement. 2. Quantum computing expert John M. Martinis warned that Bitcoin faces quantum attack risks. Quantum computers could crack Bitcoin’s elliptic curve encryption sooner than expected. Upgrading Bitcoin’s distributed network is challenging, so early anti-quantum preparations are necessary. 3. Korean exchange Bit mistakenly awarded 620k KRW in promotions as 620k BTC. Ultimately, 7 BTC worth about $490k could not be recovered. The exchange has initiated asset preservation procedures and plans to sue users who did not return the coins. 6. Historical Review of Bitcoin Industry Development The 12-year development history of Bitcoin from the creation of the genesis block in 2009 to mainstream institutional acceptance records Bitcoin’s evolution from an enthusiast experiment to a global mainstream digital asset, including key milestones such as early trading, mining technology evolution, and institutional entry.