This Week's Macro Timeline‼️

(Key Focus: Federal Reserve Meeting Week)

The core focus of markets recently is undoubtedly the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

Macro data + central bank actions converging together will likely become the key factor influencing the trajectory of risk assets this week.

Let me break down the timeline for you:

Tuesday (US Eastern Time)
Two data points to watch:
• PPI (US February Producer Price Index)
This is an important forward-looking indicator for observing inflation pressures. If PPI continues to decline, it signals weakening upstream inflation pressure, which is positive for rate cut expectations.
• EIA Crude Oil Inventory Data
Inventory changes directly impact oil price movements. Energy prices have been relatively volatile recently. If inventories continue to decline, oil prices may rise further, potentially creating new inflation pressures.

Thursday Early Morning (Major Event)
The most important event this week:
Federal Reserve Rate Decision
Current market expectations via rate futures show:
Rate cut probability near 99%
Essentially already priced in by the market.
What truly deserves attention is not the rate itself, but rather:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks

Key questions to focus on:
• How does he view recent oil price increases
• His judgment on future inflation trajectory
• Whether he will signal more rate cuts
• His stance on US economic growth

Another rather subtle backdrop:
This is the second-to-last monetary policy meeting Powell will chair during his tenure, and he's also facing some investigation pressure recently, so his language and tone may be exceptionally cautious.

Same Day (Global Central Bank Day)
Two important central bank actions will occur simultaneously:
• Bank of Japan Rate Decision
• European Central Bank Rate Decision
Three major global central banks releasing signals on the same day will create synchronized effects across forex, bonds, and risk assets.

Thursday Evening
Watch Initial Jobless Claims:
• If data is stable, it indicates the employment market remains healthy
• If it rises significantly, it could reinforce rate cut expectations
As long as there's no extreme volatility, market impact typically won't be substantial.

Summary:
Next week is a typical "Central Bank Super Week":
PPI Data
Crude Oil Inventory
Federal Reserve Rate Decision
Powell's Remarks
Bank of Japan and ECB Meetings
Initial Jobless Claims Data

Macro variables concentrated release will likely increase market volatility.

For risk assets:
Interest rate path + oil prices + central bank language
Will become the core pricing drivers in the short term.

I'll update this macro preview weekly as usual
to help everyone prepare trades and positions in advance.

Thank you for your attention.
TG discussion group in the homepage!