1. The background and policy origin of US Tariffs

Since 2018, the U.S. government has repeatedly emphasized the need to adjust trade policies to strengthen its manufacturing competitiveness by increasing tariffs and other means. Especially from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, successive administrations, based on the concept of ‘America First,’ have imposed stricter import restrictions and tariff barriers on several major trading partners. By April 5, 2025, the tariff policy was officially upgraded, further increasing the tax rates on imported products, triggering global concerns about the risk of a trade war.

According to information released on the White House official website on April 6, 2025 ( White House official website)，the latest tariff plan mainly covers the following points:

• Imposition of 10% baseline tariff: Starting from April 5, 2025, a 10% basic tariff will be imposed on almost all imported goods.
• Up to 50% tariff: Starting from April 9, 2025, higher tariffs of up to 50% will be imposed on key goods from 57 major trading partners.
• Exemption and Negotiation: Partial ‘friendly countries’ can apply for temporary or permanent exemptions, and the US Department of the Treasury has initiated related negotiation procedures in early April.

Source:White House official website

2. Key Time Nodes and Progress of US Tariffs

(Data source integrated from: Yahoo FinanceandCNBC, as of April 8, 2025

According to multiple media reports, the above-mentioned tariffs have increased significant uncertainty in international trade in the short term, especially triggering a new round of market volatility between the Europe, America, and Asia-Pacific regions.

3. The Impact of US Tariffs on the Domestic Industry and Society in the United States

The original intention of the U.S. government’s tariff policy is partly to reduce the trade deficit and protect domestic companies. However, the actual impact on different industries and social groups is not consistent based on recent developments.

3.1 Manufacturing Industry: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist

• Opportunity: Some American manufacturers believe that higher tariffs help reduce the impact of cheap imports and stimulate the competitiveness of local products. For example, American automotive parts companies can take advantage of this opportunity to increase market share.

• Challenge: American companies that procure raw materials from abroad also face rising import costs. CNBC (April 6, 2025) reported that some small furniture manufacturers have seen their profit margins nearly squeezed to 2% due to increased tariffs, leading to significantly increased production and operational pressures.

3.2 Agricultural Exports: Serious Losses

• Purchasing Plunge: Major agricultural importers such as China have imposed corresponding retaliatory tariffs, such as a 34% import tax on soybeans and pork starting from April 6, 2025. According to the US Department of Agriculture, the export volume of soybeans and pork to China decreased by 65% around April 7, 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, directly impacting farmers in the Midwest.

• Potential Inventory Risk: Taking Kansas farmers as an example, due to the backlog of unsold agricultural products, the cash flow recovery is greatly hindered, leading to further financial stress.

3.3 Consumers: Rising Prices and Hoarding

• Cost of Living: Axios (April 6, 2025) A survey shows that the majority of consumers are concerned that the cost of living will increase due to tariffs, especially in the electronics and daily consumer goods sectors.

• Hoarding behavior: NY Post (April 8, 2025) pointed out that American consumers have experienced a wave of hoarding of household appliances, electronic products, and daily necessities, with sales in the first week of April at major retailers increasing by a significant 12% compared to the same period in 2024.

4. The impact of US Tariffs on the international supply chain and trade pattern

The escalation of U.S. tariffs not only impacts the domestic economy, but also triggers a chain reaction globally, including supply chain shifts and a reshuffling of international cooperation.

4.1 Supply Chain Transfer Acceleration

• Diversification of production bases: Reuters (April 6, 2025) pointed out that an increasing number of companies are accelerating the relocation of some production lines from China to Vietnam, Indonesia, and other places to avoid the high tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods.

• Southeast Asian Opportunity: The Indonesian government announced on April 7, 2025 that it will provide tax incentives for electronic exports to the US market, aiming to attract overseas manufacturers to establish production lines locally and strive to seize market share.

4.2 The US dollar exchange rate strengthened to

• Exchange rate fluctuations: On April 8, 2025, the US Dollar Index rose to 104.5 (reaching a new high since 2023), indicating that investors’ concerns about risks and the fluctuation of domestic market demand in the United States are both having a combined impact.

• Global capital flows: Tariffs and market uncertainties have led some international capital to flow into US dollar assets, further boosting the US dollar exchange rate, forming a dual impact of “strong dollar-weak trade”.

4.3 Intensification of Multinational Trade Frictions

• WTO warning: World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala called on the United States to stop unilateral tariff escalation on April 7, 2025, emphasizing that if major global economies take similar measures, the risk of global trade fragmentation will significantly increase.

• Regionalization Trend: Meanwhile, more countries are seeking bilateral or regional small-scale free trade agreements, forming a decentralized trade framework. In the long run, this will have a profound impact on the global trading system.

5. The legal and political disputes of US Tariffs

5.1 Power Struggle between Executive Power and Congress

On April 7, 2025, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce filed a lawsuit in federal court questioning the legality of the U.S. President unilaterally imposing tariffs through executive orders, arguing that this should fall under the legislative authority of Congress (Source: NBC News, April 7, 2025). If the lawsuit is supported by the court, it may limit the direct manipulation space of the U.S. government on tariff policies.

5.2 Political Party Differences Intensify

• Internal voices of the Republican Party: North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis criticized the current tariff policy as a “betrayal of farmers”. Former Vice President Mike Pence called it the “biggest tax burden in peacetime”.

• Bipartisan political struggle: The tariff issue has once again become a new point of contention between local and federal governments, conservatives and liberals in the American political landscape; it not only affects the deliberations on the 2025 budget but also influences the layout of the 2026 election.

Source:BBC News

6. US Tariffs Future Trends and Expert Views

Multiple international financial institutions and academic experts have made various predictions about the prospects of US tariffs and their impact on the global economy.

6.1 International Financial Institutions Forecast

• JPMorgan: The report of April 7, 2025 pointed out that if high tariff policies are maintained for a year, the US GDP growth rate may decline by 0.8%, and the inflation rate may rise by 1.2%. Global trade volume may shrink by about 3-4%.

• Goldman Sachs: It is expected that if the trade war continues to escalate, the global supply chain’s trend of “de-Americanization” may further deepen, bringing more uncertainty and volatility to the global economy.

6.2 Academic Perspectives

• Harvard economist Dani Rodrik (April 6, 2025, NY Times): Pointed out that US tariffs may stimulate some manufacturing to return in the short term, but in the long term, it may harm its global economic leadership and international cooperation reputation.

• Yale Law School trade policy researcher Michael Pettis (interviewed by BBC on April 7, 2025): Reminds all countries to pay attention to the spillover effects of US domestic politics on foreign trade situations, especially for small countries to diversify their export markets and reduce their dependence on the United States.

7. How to Learn about the Latest Developments of US Tariffs from More Channels

For investors, business owners, and readers interested in international trade and the macroeconomic situation, the following channels may help further grasp the latest information and professional interpretations:

1. U.S. official announcement:

• White House official website
• The latest list of tariff exemptions or reductions announced by the US Department of the Treasury

2. International media and research institutions:

• BBC / CNBC / 路透社
• Research reports regularly released by economic think tanks and multinational consulting firms (such as Brookings, Peterson, etc.)

3. Social Media and Community:

• Major media and expert accounts in Twitter (X)
• Speech content at academic forums and industry summits

If you want to learn more about international trade, customs policies, or macroeconomics, you can also visit Gate.io LearnGet more systematic learning resources on the page.

8. Summary

From brewing continuously since 2023 to officially landing on April 5, 2025, the U.S. tariff measures have stirred up huge waves in political, economic, and social aspects. Externally, tariffs have made the global supply chain and regional economic cooperation more complex, forcing companies to accelerate adjustments to their production layout. Internally, farmers, small and medium-sized enterprises, and ordinary consumers have become the ‘front-line recipients’ of rising costs and market turbulence. At the same time, the controversy surrounding the legitimacy and effectiveness of tariff policies is profoundly affecting the domestic political landscape and future election prospects in the United States. The international community is generally concerned that unilateral tariff policies will trigger more friction and lead to the fragmentation of the global trading system.

In such a complex and ever-changing environment, it becomes particularly important to continue to pay attention to official information and professional analysis. For those seeking further study on trade policies, macroeconomic analysis methods, or those who want to proactively position themselves for risks and opportunities, visiting Gate.io Learn can help gain richer knowledge and insights. In the current international environment, rationality and pluralistic thinking will be key to understanding and addressing uncertainty.