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The U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-over-year dropped to 2.4%, down from 2.8% last month and below the 2.6% market expectation. While this signals cooling inflation, the market reaction has been muted.
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Gate Research Institute: March Web3 on-chain Insights
Summary
On-chain Data Summary
Overall Situation on the Chain
on-chain daily trading volume
In March, the on-chain transaction volume showed that the Solana network ranked first with a total transaction volume of 2.6 billion; Bitcoin's on-chain transaction volume exhibited significant fluctuations, with a total transaction volume of 12 million; while the total transaction volume of the Ethereum network was 36.9 million. Since 2025, the monthly transaction volume of the three public chains has seen relatively small fluctuations.
Daily Gas Fees for Each Chain
In March, the total Gas fees on the Solana network were about $30.8 million, the total Gas fees on the Ethereum network were about $22.1 million, and the total Gas fees on the Bitcoin network were about $15.1 million. Since 2025, the overall Gas fees of the three public chains have shown a downward trend. 【2】
Public Chain Bridge Net Flow
In the cash flow data of various public chains in March, ETH had a net outflow of 568 million USD, ranking the highest across the network, while Base achieved a net inflow of 471 million USD, becoming the public chain with the highest inflow amount. Meanwhile, both BTC and Solana networks showed positive cash flow, with net inflows of 6.6 million USD and 158 million USD respectively, indicating stable capital inflow for these mainstream public chains. It is noteworthy that emerging chains such as Sonic and Berachain maintained positive inflows, while Sui, which had been experiencing constant inflows, showed signs of capital outflow, indicating a certain change in Sui's market performance. 【3】
Bitcoin Key Indicator Analysis
The following will filter and analyze several key indicators of Bitcoin and summarize the market trends based on this.
long-term holders increase BTC holdings
Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown unique dynamics, with long-term holders (investors holding for more than 155 days) selling off during price increases, but then re-accumulating, forming a relatively stable market structure. So far, two major distribution and accumulation cycles have emerged: Distribution Wave 1: long-term holders reduced their holdings by -929,000 BTC; Accumulation Wave 1: long-term holders increased their holdings by +817,000 BTC; Distribution Wave 2: long-term holders reduced their holdings by -1,110,000 BTC; Accumulation Wave 2: currently increased by +278,000 BTC.
The cumulative selling pressure of approximately 2 million BTC has been absorbed by the market. In the past, sell-offs of this magnitude typically signaled the end of a bull market, but the current market's re-accumulation behavior has mitigated the impact of the sell-off, resulting in a relatively stable price structure. This cycle may be key to maintaining an orderly price trend in the current market, where price increases trigger sell-offs and profit-taking, followed by consolidation and a new accumulation process.
The net positions of long-term Bitcoin holders have increased.
According to Glassnode on-chain data, the holdings of long-term Bitcoin holders (investors greater than 155 days) have changed significantly over the past six months, and after a round of significant reductions, they have recently begun to re-enter the accumulation phase. On December 6, 2024, long-term holders' holdings recorded a maximum net decrease of about -618,234 BTC, indicating significant market selling pressure, with long-term investors choosing to take profits in the prevailing market conditions. However, the market then absorbed these selling pressures, and the trend of long-term holders' holdings began to pick up. By February 22, 2025, the indicator turned positive to around +50,840 BTC, indicating that long-term holders have restarted accumulating bitcoin and indicating an uptick in market sentiment. Since then, the cumulative trend has continued to strengthen, and as of the latest data, the change in long-term holders' net holdings has reached +260,756 BTC, indicating that this group is actively covering their positions. This shift suggests that the market may have moved past the massive sell-off by long-term holders and entered a period of reabsorption and stable accumulation. Historical experience shows that when long-term holders move from selling to accumulation, it is usually accompanied by improved market liquidity and price stability, laying the foundation for potential upside in the future. 【5】
The balance of the Bitcoin exchange has dropped to 2,639,252 BTC, hitting a new low since 2018.
According to on-chain data from Glassnode, the exchange balance of Bitcoin fell to 2,639,252 BTC on March 28, reaching a new low since 2018. This significant decline indicates that more and more investors are transferring Bitcoin from exchanges to cold storage or other non-exchange wallets, reflecting increased confidence among long-term holders. This trend suggests that the market is entering a "supply contraction" phase, and the reduction in circulating Bitcoin may lay the groundwork for future price increases. Historically, low points in exchange balances are often associated with market bottoms or accumulation periods, making it worth investors' attention to monitor subsequent dynamics.
Market Trend Summary
Since 2025, the monthly trading volume changes of the three public chains BTC, ETH, and SOL have been relatively small, and Gas fees have shown an overall downward trend. In March, the net outflow of ETH reached 568 million USD, the highest in the entire network, while both BTC and SOL networks showed positive capital inflow.
According to the unique dynamics of the Bitcoin market and on-chain data, long-term holders are currently re-accumulating Bitcoin, and there are signs that this accumulation behavior is accelerating based on the changes in net positions of long-term holders. At the same time, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges fell to 2,639,252 BTC on March 28, hitting a new low since 2018, indicating that more and more Bitcoin is being transferred to self-custody wallets, cold wallets, or long-term storage addresses, further reducing the number of Bitcoins available for trading in the market.
In the current macro policy and economic environment, the price of bitcoin is expected to bottom out of this range and move sideways. It is worth noting that if long-term holders accelerate the rate of accumulation of bitcoin in the coming period, it is expected that the price of bitcoin will usher in a new round of rise.
Popular Projects and Token Dynamics
Overview of Popular Project Data
Four.meme
Four.meme is a one-click token issuance platform based on BSC, dedicated to providing low-cost and seamless services for token deployers and investors, supporting the fair issuance of Meme coins and other types of tokens, creating a transparent, innovative, and efficient asset issuance ecosystem. Recently, with CZ's frequent interactions and promotions on social media X, the popularity of Four.meme has surged, and the platform data has reached new highs. On March 22, the number of tokens launched in a single day reached 108,528. As of March 31, the cumulative number of created tokens has reached 153,212.
The trading volume of the Four.meme platform saw significant growth in March, with a single-day trading volume exceeding $80.18 million on March 21, showcasing its strong activity and influence within the BSC ecosystem. This surge not only reflects the market's demand for fair and low-cost token issuance platforms but also further consolidates Four.meme's leading position in this field. In the future, with the addition of more quality projects, Four.meme is expected to continue driving the BSC ecosystem towards a more transparent and efficient direction. [8]
Overview of Popular Token Data
$MUBARAK —— MUBARAK token is a meme coin on BSC, inspired by the $2 billion investment from the Abu Dhabi MGX Fund into a well-known exchange in March 2025. Its name "MUBARAK" comes from Arabic, meaning "blessing," symbolizing good fortune and prosperity, reflecting its cultural significance. Currently, the total issuance of the token is 1 billion, and it mainly serves as a tradable asset, with the community having expectations for its potential use in decentralized applications in the future.
On-chain Activity
The popularity of the MUBARAK token is closely related to CZ's dynamics on social media. Both his interactions on X (formerly Twitter) and on-chain trading activity have been a catalyst for market sentiment, driving the price and trading volume of the MUBARAK token to fluctuate significantly. For example, on March 16, 2025, CZ spent 1 BNB (about $600) on-chain to buy MUBARAK tokens, a small transaction that sparked a lot of buzz in the market. THE COMMUNITY INTERPRETED THIS MOVE AS A POTENTIAL ENDORSEMENT OF THE TOKEN BY CZ, CAUSING MUBARAK'S TRADING VOLUME TO SURGE TO $258 MILLION ON THE DAY, A NEW MONTHLY HIGH[9]. This phenomenon reflects the fact that CZ's influence is still strong in the crypto market, and even small trading moves can cause market storms. In addition, CZ's social media dynamics are not limited to on-chain transactions, and his personal image changes also have a significant impact on the market. WHEN HE CHANGED THE AVATAR OF PLATFORM X TO ARABIC TRADITIONAL CLOTHING, THE MARKET INTERPRETED THE MOVE AS LIKELY TO BE RELATED TO THE CULTURAL BACKGROUND OF THE MUBARAK TOKEN. As a result, the price of the MUBARAK token skyrocketed by 50% in a short period of time, driving the token's market cap to exceed $190 million[10].
The current market's high sensitivity to KOL (Key Opinion Leaders) dynamics, especially with CZ as an important figure in the cryptocurrency industry, often interprets his personal actions as implicit signals, further driving investor actions. [11]
Summary
In March 2025, based on the analysis of on-chain data and market dynamics, the current capital flow of various public chains has diverged, with ETH experiencing a large net outflow in March, while BTC and SOL have achieved positive gold flows. At the same time, the Bitcoin market showed a trend of long-term holders shifting from selling to reaccumulation, with exchange balances falling to record lows, indicating a gradual tightening of market supply and providing potential support for price stability and future upside. Against the backdrop of the market pullback, pump.fun, which was originally hot on Solana, has cooled down significantly, while Four.meme on BSC has once again detonated the meme coin market craze with its low cost, fair launch mechanism and CZ's frequent activities on social media. The number of tokens launched and the trading volume of the Four.meme platform in a single day hit a new high, and the cumulative number of tokens created has reached a new record, which shows that the market demand for a fair and transparent asset issuance platform is still strong. Overall, with the stabilization of the market structure and the continuous emergence of high-quality projects, both the Bitcoin market and the meme coin ecosystem are expected to usher in new upward momentum in the future.
Reference Material:
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