Collapse of the Bitcoin price and the entire crypto market

Today, the price of Bitcoin has crashed below $75,000.

Saturday was still above $83,000, but the black Monday of the financial markets this time also hit the price of BTC.

The quotation of Bitcoin in recent months

Before the electoral victory of Donald Trump, at the beginning of November, the quotation of the price of Bitcoin was about $70,000.

As soon as the victory of Trump was known, it had first soared to $76,000, then to $91,000, and in December it had even risen above $100,000.

Shortly before the inauguration at the White House of the new president, on January 20, 2025, the price of BTC recorded its all-time high, above $109,000, and then its rise stopped

At the beginning of February, a decline phase began, which is still ongoing, that brought the price of Bitcoin first below $100,000, then below $80,000 at the end of February, and then below $76,000 today.

Black Monday also hits the Bitcoin quotation

This latest crash is due to the so-called “black monday“

Since the end of last week, a possible black Monday was being speculated for today, and in the end, the crash has arrived

The problem is Trump’s trade policy, which at this point seems likely to lead the USA, and perhaps the entire world, into a recession

On Polymarket, for example, a month ago bettors considered a recession in the USA in 2025 as highly unlikely (less than 25% probability), while in the last seven days this probability has skyrocketed from 38% to 64%.

It is precisely this change of perspective that forces investors and speculators to quickly take cover to rebalance their portfolios in anticipation of the recession

Until two weeks ago, portfolios largely ignored the risk of recession; however, in recent days, they have been forced to take it seriously into consideration

The consequence of all this is a collapse of the traditional financial markets, with the Hong Kong stock exchange losing 11% today alone, while those of Tokyo and Shanghai lose 8%. The European stock exchanges have just opened with a -4% that could increase during the day, while the USA stock exchanges are still closed but the futures indicate an opening at -4%.

Suffice it to say that during 2025 the S&P500 index has already lost more than 13%, and the Nasdaq even more than 17%, while the Hang Seng of Hong Kong is now at -18% from the relative high of recent months

The worst quarter for Bitcoin

The price of Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2025 fell by 11.7%, thus marking the worst first quarter since 2015

In the past, there have been even larger declines, but they usually occurred either in other quarters or over shorter periods of time

Furthermore, often the first and last quarter of the year are positive, except in bear-market years, and now the risk seems to be precisely that of an early bear-market

However, the altcoins are doing even worse, with the price of Ethereum in Bitcoin falling below 0.020 BTC, which is near all-time lows.

The Total3, or the total market capitalization of the crypto markets excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, has plummeted from 934 billion dollars at the beginning of the year to 667 billion today, which is a drop (-28%) significantly greater than that of Bitcoin’s valuation in the same period.

The price of gold

In such a bleak picture, there is, however, a piece of data that suggests at least a bit of caution.

In fact, the price of gold today has not risen. On the contrary, it has exited the bull trend that started in mid-December and has not yet been interrupted

Although a single day below that trend is not enough to state that the gold’s bull trend of recent months has ended, it is surprising that on such a terrible day for the financial markets, gold did not react with a further rise

It is therefore possible to hypothesize that the markets had already largely priced in today’s collapse in the price of gold, and if the price of gold should continue not to rise further, thus confirming the end of the bull trend, this could be interpreted as a good sign in the medium/long term

On the other hand, by now the markets are pricing in the recession in the USA, and probably also at a global level, and they might not take long to price it in completely

At this point, the collapse could also run its course in the coming days or weeks, and at that point, it will be interesting to see if they start betting on a rebound or if they will enter a waiting phase