On November 25th, the market sentiment suddenly became upbeat.

Bitcoin shot directly to around $89,000, with a 24-hour increase of 1.64%—an increase at this speed is clearly not driven by technical factors. The real catalyst? The dovish signals coming from the Federal Reserve.

Two heavyweight figures spoke out on the same day. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that inflation will continue to decline, and the data for January next year will be key; San Francisco Fed's Daly was more direct, believing that the risk of a deterioration in the labor market is much greater than the risk of inflation rebounding. As soon as she finished speaking, CME data showed that the probability of a rate cut in December soared to 80.9%. It's worth noting that this was still up in the air in the third quarter.

The US stock market reacted quickly as well. All three major indices are in the green, with the Nasdaq leading the way up nearly 2.7%, as tech stocks and growth stocks take off first. The sensitivity of capital is quite keen—once the expectation of interest rate cuts arises, the liquidity logic immediately returns to the main line.

Why did the Federal Reserve suddenly shift? The reason is actually not complicated: hiring is declining, layoffs are rising, and employment data is starting to weaken; core inflation is basically controllable, with an overall downward trend; continuing to tighten may lead to a hard landing, which poses a greater risk than inflation itself; coupled with the significant economic pressures in 2025, if not paving the way now, when else is there to wait?

To be honest, assets like Bitcoin are ridiculously sensitive to liquidity. Every time the policy direction changes, it always rushes ahead. If interest rates are really cut in December, the crypto market is likely to welcome a major rally, with gains potentially exceeding traditional assets. The US stock market will also continue to rebound, and the tech sector should still be the first choice.

But don't celebrate too early. A bunch of data will be released intensively in January next year, and if it falls short of expectations, the Federal Reserve's stance could change at any time. Market expectations for this thing are inherently volatile. What can be done now is to keep a close eye on the data and not be swayed by emotions.