Don't rush to translate those thick reports. The current situation in the U.S. actually revolves around three key points: **how the Intrerest Rate changes, whether the economy can hold up, and if there is still a fiscal底**.

# Intrerest Rate this line: Want to lower, but afraid of lowering it wrong

In the past two years, the Federal Reserve has raised the Intrerest Rate to levels not seen in decades. Now that inflation has been brought down, economic data is starting to show signs of improvement. Cut interest rates? It definitely has to be done. But there is a huge internal debate:

- Some are anxious: "The economy has already started to weaken, and if we delay any further, we will have a hard landing."
- Some people are steady: "Inflation could rebound at any time, and dropping too quickly is even more dangerous."

**What about the results?**
Every day they shout "data-dependent", but in reality, it's just stalling. They dare not make a drastic cut, nor do they dare not to cut.

# Economic Line: AI Frenzy, Workers Encounter Chill

Tech giants are throwing money around crazily—AI, computing power, cloud services, each one more costly than the last. But what about the job market? The growth rate has clearly slowed down. The number of new jobs is far below expectations, as money has been poured into data centers and servers, **yet the number of people has hardly increased**.

This is not the "Peak of Prosperity", more like:
**Capital is still high, but the real economy is already gasping.**

# Fiscal Line: Deficit Maxed Out, Debt Snowballing

Fiscal deficit? Persistently high. The money spent by the government far exceeds the money collected. Scale of national debt? Continuously reaching new highs. Just the Intrerest Rate payments are about to become a new hole.

**Summarize these three points in one sentence:**
The economy is a bit虚, debt is at its peak, and they want to lower the 利率 but are afraid to drop it sharply. This is the underlying color of the current situation in the United States.

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# So why does the cryptocurrency market react whenever the US moves?

The answer is simple: **Interest Rate**.

Every statement and data release from the Federal Reserve directly affects the market's expectations for the "price of money." The crypto market is inherently sensitive to liquidity—when interest rate cut expectations rise, funds flow into risk assets; when interest rate hike expectations emerge, money retracts to safe assets.

So when the U.S. sneezes, it's strange that the crypto circle doesn't catch a cold.