2025-12-04 20:00:40

#美联储重启降息步伐 That wave of data in the evening completely stunned the market—the initial jobless claims announced at 21:30 exceeded expectations, and the crypto market immediately corrected in response. 📉 This is a true reflection of the liquidity game: a slight fluctuation in macro data, and coin prices instantly change their face. So, those who keep an eye on the market know that news always moves faster than technicals.

But the real highlight is yet to come. At 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 10, the Fed’s interest rate decision will be announced, and this result will basically determine whether a rate cut will happen by year-end. Let’s review the latest data: the November ADP employment unexpectedly recorded -32,000 ( when the market originally expected +10,000 ); this negative number directly heated up the rate cut expectations. Currently, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has already soared to 88.8%. Although the initial claims data is dragging a bit, overall, a rate cut is highly likely. 🔥

Once the policy is implemented, what will improved liquidity expectations bring? $BTC and $ETH are very likely to strengthen, especially in this time window—the industry remains active, ETH is at a key technical level, the SEC just approved products related to liquid staking, and with multiple positives stacking up, the upside potential is indeed worth imagining. 🚀 But on the other hand, the surprise in the initial claims data also reminds us: economic signals are swinging, so don’t be too aggressive in your trades. Take your profits when you can, build positions in batches, and don’t expect to get everything in one go.

Ultimately, in these few days leading up to December 10, the market is betting on the realization of the rate cut expectation. The probability is there, but black swans never give advance notice. It’s always wise to be prepared—if the rate cut comes as expected, go with the flow; if something unexpected happens, you won’t be caught off guard. 💡

What do you think about this rate decision? Will it go smoothly or bring surprises? Share your judgment in the comments! $BTC $ETH

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RealYieldWizard

· 20h ago

An 88.8% probability sounds pretty solid, but I’m still used to keeping some cash on hand—you can never really guard against black swans. I get the logic, it’s just that this round of jobless claims feels a bit uncomfortable. If it drops, it drops. Let’s just wait and see what happens on the 12th. Actually, building a position in batches is the safest move. Don’t think about going all-in at once. If the rate cut actually happens, BTC will definitely take off. The problem is, what if there’s no cut? An 88.8% chance does seem pretty high. I might test the waters with a small position. Macroeconomic data really can change in an instant—previous expectations can get overturned in minutes. A lot of people are betting on rate cuts, but I’m just worried there’ll be a reversal when the time comes. If there really is a rate cut this time, those who positioned themselves for liquidity coming in should have planned ahead. The scariest thing is when the probability is high, but the market dumps anyway.

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MemeTokenGenius

· 12-06 07:47

Told you already, don’t watch the charts too closely. One data release and it’s game over for everyone—that’s just everyday life in crypto. --- An 88.8% probability sounds pretty solid, but I’m still going to reduce my position just in case. You can never guard against black swans. --- That’s how liquidity games go: as soon as the data drops, the market flips instantly. It’s wild. You have to cut your losses decisively when it’s time. --- Will BTC and ETH go up if rate cuts actually happen? Not necessarily. They said it would go up before and it still dropped, so don’t get too optimistic. --- Is the better-than-expected initial jobless claims data hinting that the economy isn’t that bad, and rate cuts might get delayed? The more I think about it, the more nervous I get. --- Building a position in batches is a good strategy. Anyway, there’ll definitely be action before December 10. Just holding and watching for now. --- It’s another bet on rate cut expectations. That’s what the crypto world lives on—otherwise, what else would we do? --- The SEC approving liquidity staking products is actually good news, but one unemployment claim data release and it’s all for nothing. --- I honestly feel like this time a rate cut might actually happen. Otherwise, the market wouldn’t be so desperate to push up. The real question is: what happens after the cut? --- Having a backup plan is smart, but honestly, I’m still a little anxious. What if things go the opposite way?

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LiquidationWatcher

· 12-04 20:27

There's an 88.8% chance I believe it, but that 0.1% accident is often enough to wipe you out. --- That initial jobless claims move really caught me off guard; macro data is getting harder and harder to predict. --- If there’s no rate cut on December 10th, I’ll eat shit. Right now the whole market is following this script. --- Don’t talk to me about multiple bullish factors. When it comes to the rate decision moment, the market can flip in an instant. I’ve seen it too many times. --- Building a position in batches is the most reliable advice. The greedy ones got wiped out in the last round. --- “Black swan” is a good term. In front of the market, there’s actually no difference between 88.8% and 99.9%. --- Liquidity improvement? Let’s see what the Fed says first. If they talk hawkish, we’ll all have to claw our way back.

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AltcoinHunter

· 12-04 20:12

88.8% probability sounds nice, but why do I feel like this is just betting on a black swan event... The last time I saw such a high probability was when I bought a coin that went to zero.

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TheMemefather

· 12-04 20:01

An 88.8% probability—I’m betting this round is solid, just worried the Fed might pull a reverse move on us. Black swans are the worst, always popping up when you’re most at ease. The initial jobless claims data is really wild, so I guess we’re just waiting for 3 a.m. on the 10th now. A rate cut is almost certain; the key is how much the price will rise. Just hope it’s not another flash in the pan. Macroeconomic data is so exhausting—good one moment, bad the next, and coin prices are all over the place. Honestly, there’s nothing much to worry about. We’ll find out on December 10th, and by then we’ll know what to do.

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