Ash2023

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Age 4.1 Yıl
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Trenches even more extractive than ever
• Bunch of new launchpads popping up just for creators to farm the taxes
• Bags meta is questionable -> tokens are not official, so degens are begging the real founders to acknowledge the coins and claims fees (didn't we already go through this in 2024?)
• Tokens topped out at the $20-$40m range, ceilings are super low
• Recycled meta (yea these AI intentions are groundbreaking, tokens however do nothing)
• Oh the former mayor of New York launched his meme which rugged
• Only tokens that have been supply controlled (>80%) pumps these days
• Even lesser
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so the frog killed the cow?
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unsure if i am on substack or x these days
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gm if you are seeing more CT content on your feed
we are so back.
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> CT is dying and showing me irrelevant slop
> Nikita is killing X
> Can't see my friends' posts/articles anymore
Solution for you:
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"I just vibe coded using Claude code"
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My 2026 prediction is that everyone will make a 2027 prediction by the end of this year.
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2025: Public Markets and Crypto Both Priced the Future Wrong
Cross-market hangover.
In equities:
More than two-thirds of (tech) IPOs are trading below their IPO price. Most companies sold growth expectations that simply didn’t materialise fast enough.
In crypto:
The same dynamic played out at TGE. 84.7% of 2025 token launches are below their TGE valuation, with the majority sitting in the 70-99% drawdown “graveyard zone.”
What happens in 2026?
Source: @dailychartbook @mementoresearch
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Seeing more and more apps earning higher revenues than the chain they are built on.
Fat app thesis playing out
2026 is the year value shifts back to successful applications with strong user bases and revenue. 
gKami
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if you are in crypto, pivot to daycare
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“it’s going to take 3 years…”
do it or don’t, time will pass anyway
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the prediction market epidemic has gone too far
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Skewing the data and pulling this kek
#PlayKami
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2025 token launches have mostly been a bloodbath
Tracked 118 TGE launches this year and compared today’s FDV vs opening:
• 84.7% (100/118) are below TGE valuation
• This means ~4 out of 5 launches are below their opening valuation
• Median token is -71% FDV (-67% MC) from launch
• Only 15% are green vs TGE
TGE isn’t early anymore reee
Full data:
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When you look at a token’s price (all down bad now LMEOW), what amount of supply are you valuing?
Token valuations answer that question --> Crypto needed various metrics because tokens don’t behave like equities:
• A normal tokenomics piechart tells you that supply is split across public float, locked allocations, vesting, future emissions, burns
• 2 tokens at “$200m market cap” can have completely different dilution + liquidity realities
- - - - -
We relied on 2 methods thus far
a) Market Cap (MC)
• Default “ranking” metric where MC = Price × Circulating supply (public float)
• Gives us an id
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