6.21 Sunday SOL Morning Thoughts Today, SOL continues to show a high-level resistance, weak oscillation, and powerless rebound bearish structure, as a highly elastic mainstream blockchain coin, this round of market trend has fully followed the weak rhythm of the broader market, suppressed by the Fed's hawkish high-interest rate expectations, with overall market risk appetite low, funds generally fleeing to safe assets, and the altcoin and public chain sectors severely lacking incremental funds. Even if there is a slight oversold rebound during the day, it is only a technical correction, belonging to short-term speculation of existing funds, with no major funds entering to support, and no conditions for a trend reversal. Coupled with this week's dense release of US inflation and employment data, the market may experience wide-range shakeouts at any time, with volatility far exceeding Bitcoin and Ethereum. Technically, the daily chart remains in a standard downward channel, with prices continuously suppressed by medium- and long-term moving averages, each rebound accompanied by obvious volume decline and price-volume divergence, with heavy trapped positions at high levels above, making sharp rises prone to concentrated selling pressure and pullbacks; the four-hour rebound highs continue to decline, with a clear short-term moving average death cross suppression, indicators slightly repaired but still in a weak zone, and the bearish structure intact without being broken. Today's key resistance is concentrated in the 83.5–85 range, which is a short-term moving average and trading volume resonance resistance level, with the ultimate strong resistance at 89–92 range difficult to break through; short-term support at 77–79 is very weak, a false support zone, and if effectively broken, it will accelerate downward. The mid-term core defensive line is at the 70 level, and losing it will trigger a new deep bottoming phase. Trading suggestion: rebound at 74.5–75 to look for short positions, target 72, if $BTC broken, see 70.

Last week, Bitcoin's layout gained nearly 40,000 in oil, with a profit margin of 6,000 points. Today, the long-term analysis of Bitcoin is back! Bitcoin's long-term layout for next week: 1. In-depth analysis of long-term trends Bitcoin’s weekly level is facing multiple layers of resistance, with each rebound appearing weak and unable to stabilize at key resistance levels. The buying momentum continues to weaken, confirming that all rebounds are merely corrective patterns within a downtrend. Overall, the main trend next week is unlikely to reverse, and the medium- to long-term downward channel is fully open. Therefore, all rebounds should be viewed as entry opportunities for long-term high positions. Strictly avoid contrarian trades on the left side, and maintain a trend-following approach throughout. 2. Core negative news 1. Macro liquidity tightening: The Federal Reserve’s high-interest rate cycle is prolonged, with rate cut expectations continuously delayed, and dollar liquidity remains tight, suppressing all digital assets. 2. Regulatory and capital pressure: The US SEC continues to tighten crypto regulation; spot Bitcoin ETF funds have been net outflows for several consecutive weeks, with institutional holdings steadily reducing and exiting. 3. Market capital siphoning effect: The US stock AI sector continues to siphon market funds, risk appetite shifts toward traditional equity markets, and liquidity in the crypto market continues to shrink. 4. On-chain selling pressure: Large whales and miners are continuously dumping on-chain, with major holders transferring out chips to sell off, creating ongoing selling pressure. 5. The phase-out of safe-haven narratives: Global geopolitical risks increase, funds flock to gold and other traditional safe-haven assets, causing the narrative of Bitcoin as a digital store of value to temporarily lose effectiveness. 6. US-Iran negotiations collapse, triggering global asset sell-offs: Negotiations between the US and Iran are canceled, combined with the Fed’s more hawkish monetary policy stance, causing the dollar index to surge to a one-year high. 7. Middle East tensions escalate, reversing safe-haven logic: Iran’s military officially announces the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, banning all ships from passing. Markets initially hoped for negotiations to ease tensions, but conflicts have intensified again. 3. Long-term strategic layout Entry: Gradually accumulate long positions in the 67,500-69,500 range. Stop-loss: Above 71,000. Target: 61,500-54,200. The above is only my personal analysis. I will update based on real-time news and data. Brothers are welcome to come and discuss with me! #我的Gate交易时刻 #美伊谈判推迟 $BTC

Bitcoin rebounded from the low point of 63,136 yesterday, with the price steadily rising. In the afternoon, it continued to surge to the intraday high of 64,370, touching above the 4-hour Bollinger middle band resistance zone. All short-term bullish momentum was released. After touching the 64,370 high, the market began to oscillate and decline, gradually retreating from the high point to around 63,900 for narrow-range consolidation. The all-day surge with sluggish momentum perfectly confirmed the strong selling pressure around the 64,300 level. Ethereum rebounded and recovered from the low of 1,703, relying on support at the low position to steadily rise. It surged throughout the day to 1,749, touching below the 4-hour Bollinger upper band at 1,760 resistance zone. The previous anticipation of around 1,750 for strategic placement perfectly matched this high point range. After reaching the 1,749 high in the evening, bullish momentum rapidly diminished. The chasing funds were unable to sustain the rally. Profit-taking at high levels led to concentrated exits, and the price continued to oscillate downward. From the high point, it fell back to around 1,729 for consolidation. After the decline, bulls and bears entered short-term equilibrium, with the current price of 1,734 oscillating slightly above the middle band. Bitcoin’s current price is 64,231, with an intraday range of 63,136-64,370. The 4-hour Bollinger middle band at 64,314 forms direct resistance. After yesterday’s surge to the 64,370 high, bullish momentum quickly waned. The current price hovers below resistance in a narrow range. The 4-hour KDJ indicator approaches the overbought zone, indicating a short-term need for a natural correction. OBV volume remains below the average line. This rebound lacked increased capital inflow, with only short-term funds playing within the market. High-level selling pressure continues to accumulate. Overall, the probability of a bearish decline is higher. In the short term, only slight oscillation and consolidation are expected. Bitcoin’s attempt to break through the 64,314-64,370 resistance zone is weak. Ethereum’s attempt to test the 1,746-1,750 resistance zone is sluggish, with insufficient bullish support. Profit-taking at high levels is concentrated, leading to a decline. Bitcoin first drops to support at 63,512; if broken, it further declines toward 63,136, ultimately targeting 62,500. Ethereum first retests the Bollinger middle band at 1,719. After a volume-driven breakdown below 1,703, it continues downward toward the 1,660 target zone. This rally is only a short-term correction after oversold conditions. The 4-hour Bollinger bands are opening downward. The larger cycle correction downward channel has not reversed. The volume-declining rebound lacks a sustainable bullish foundation. The overall strategy is to mainly short on rebounds, with light positions for low-cost buying if support holds: Bitcoin’s rebound in the 64,500-64,700 range shows weak upward momentum. Short positions are arranged accordingly, targeting 63,000. Ethereum’s rebound around 1,750-1,760 shows sluggishness and bearish signs. The target is 1,650. Continuing the high-altitude shorting approach, waiting for a pullback. Key support levels are not broken to new lows. Small positions are used for short-term minor corrections, avoiding heavy chasing.