1. Introduction

1.1 Background and Purpose

Since the 20th century, global economic integration has accelerated, making international trade increasingly vital to national economic development. As one of the world’s largest economies, any shift in U.S. trade policy often sets off global ripple effects. Throughout his political career, Donald Trump has upheld an “America First” ideology, implementing sweeping reforms in U.S. trade policy. His 2025 tariff policy, introduced after reassuming office, garnered worldwide attention and debate.

The rollout of the 2025 tariff policy occurred under complex domestic and international circumstances. Domestically, the U.S. economy has long grappled with issues like manufacturing job losses and a widening trade deficit, which Trump used to justify his protectionist approach. He believes that by raising tariffs, imports can be curbed, domestic manufacturing can be revitalized, jobs can be created, and his vision to “Make America Great Again” can be achieved. Internationally, shifts in the global economic landscape and the rise of emerging economies have challenged U.S. dominance in global trade. Trump seeks to reassert U.S. leadership through tariff measures that prioritize American economic interests.

2. Overview of Trump’s 2025 Tariff Policy

2.1 Key Policy Contents

The centerpiece of Trump’s 2025 tariff plan is the concept of “reciprocal tariffs,” aimed at achieving fair trade by levying higher tariffs on imports. Key elements include:

• Baseline tariffs and differential tax rates: A 10% baseline tariff is imposed on all goods imported into the United States, significantly raising the overall tariff level in the United States and generally increasing the cost of various imported goods. In response to different countries and regions, additional tariffs rates are set based on the so-called ‘unfair trade levels’ by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). Additional tariffs of 34%, 20%, 24%, 46%, and 26% are respectively imposed on major trading partners such as China, the European Union, Japan, Vietnam, and India. The setting of these high tariff rates has greatly reduced the price competitiveness of export goods from these countries and regions in the U.S. market, severely impacting the trade relations between these countries and regions and the United States. After the United States imposed high tariffs on electronic products, clothing, and other goods exported from China, the sales of related products from China in the U.S. market have significantly declined.

• The coverage of commodities is extensive: the policy covers almost all categories of goods, from daily consumer goods such as clothing, shoes, toys, to industrial products such as machinery and electronic products, to agricultural products, and so on, none are spared. This means that American consumers will face higher prices when purchasing imported goods, and American companies will also see a significant increase in costs when purchasing raw materials and components. Due to the increase in the cost of imported raw materials, domestic manufacturing companies in the United States have to raise product prices, which not only affects the market competitiveness of enterprises, but also drives inflation in the United States.

• Consideration of non-tariff barriers: When determining tariff rates, the United States also takes into account non-tariff barriers of trading partner countries, such as market access difficulties, bias in state-owned enterprise procurement, digital scrutiny, internet restrictions, barriers to technology transfer, subsidy measures, etc., estimating them as so-called “hidden tariffs.” This practice lacks scientific basis and is a means adopted by the United States to implement trade protectionism. The United States distorts some of China’s normal industrial policies and regulatory measures, such as support for state-owned enterprises, management of cybersecurity, etc., as non-tariff barriers, and thereby increases the tariff rates on Chinese goods.

2.2 Background and Motivation for Introduction

The introduction of Trump’s tariff policy in 2025 has a complex economic and political background, and the motives behind it are also multifaceted.

• Economic Motives:

• Trade Deficit Issue: For a long time, the United States has been facing a huge trade deficit. In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit reached a record-breaking $800 billion. The Trump administration believes that the trade deficit is a major ‘chronic illness’ of the U.S. economy, harming its economic interests. They attribute the trade deficit to other countries’ ‘unfair trade practices’ such as low tariffs, non-tariff barriers, currency manipulation, etc., and attempt to reduce imports and increase exports by imposing tariffs in order to narrow the trade deficit. However, in reality, the U.S. trade deficit is caused by multiple factors, including domestic consumption habits, industrial structure, international division of labor, etc. Relying solely on imposing tariffs cannot fundamentally solve the problem.

• Restructuring demand: The industrial structure in the United States has undergone significant changes in the past few decades, with the proportion of manufacturing in GDP continuously decreasing, while the proportion of services continues to rise. The shrinking of manufacturing has led to a loss of a large number of employment opportunities, bringing a series of problems to the US economy and society. The Trump administration hopes to protect domestic manufacturing and promote the reshoring of manufacturing to increase employment opportunities by raising tariffs. They believe that high tariffs can make imported goods more expensive, thereby encouraging US consumers to buy more domestically produced goods and promoting the development of manufacturing. However, this approach overlooks the complexity of the global industrial chain and the issues existing within the US manufacturing sector, such as high labor costs and insufficient technological innovation.

• Political Motive:

• Fulfilling campaign promises: During the campaign, Trump has always emphasized ‘America First’ and promised to take measures to protect American industries and jobs, and reduce trade deficits. Implementing a high tariff policy is one of the important means for him to fulfill these promises, which helps consolidate his domestic political support, especially in regions and voter groups that are heavily affected by the decline of the manufacturing industry. In some traditional manufacturing states, Trump’s tariff policy has received support from some voters who hope to revitalize local manufacturing through tariff protection.

• Geopolitical Considerations: On the international political stage, the United States is attempting to maintain its global hegemonic position and suppress its competitors through tariff policies. Imposing tariffs on major economies such as China and the European Union is not only for economic interests, but also to exert political pressure and restrain the development of these countries and regions. The U.S. tariff war against China is to a certain extent driven by concerns over China’s rise, attempting to hinder China’s development through economic means.

3. Implementation of Policies and Market Response

3.1 Implementation Process and Key Milestones

The implementation process of Trump’s tariff policy in 2025 is full of twists and turns, a series of key events and time points have far-reaching impacts on the global trade pattern. In January 2025, after Trump returned to the White House, he quickly put the adjustment of trade policy on the agenda. On February 13, Trump signed a ‘Presidential Memorandum,’ ordering the development of a ‘fair and reciprocal plan’ on trade, laying the foundation for the subsequent implementation of tariff policies.

On March 4, Trump reiterated during the joint session of Congress that equivalent tariffs will be imposed starting on April 2, and agricultural tariffs will also take effect on April 2. This news has sparked high attention and anxiety in the global market. On April 2, Trump announced at the White House the so-called “equivalent tariffs” measures against trading partners. According to the two signed executive orders, the United States will establish a “minimum benchmark tariff” of 10% for trading partners, and impose higher tariffs on certain trading partners, including 34% on Chinese goods, 20% on EU goods, 24% on Japanese goods, and 46% on Vietnamese goods.

The basic tariffs took effect on April 5, while the additional retaliatory tariffs officially came into effect on April 9. This series of measures has significantly increased the level of tariffs in the United States, causing a huge impact on the global trade order. In the implementation process, the United States has continuously adjusted and supplemented its tariff policies based on its own interests and political considerations. Citing reasons such as the ‘fentanyl issue’ and ‘inadequate control of fentanyl precursors,’ the United States has repeatedly raised the tariff rates on Chinese goods, leading to escalating trade tensions between China and the United States.

3.2 Global Financial Market Turmoil

The announcement of Trump’s tariff policy for 2025 is like a heavy bombshell, causing severe turbulence in global financial markets. Stocks, foreign exchange, bonds, and other areas have been impacted to varying degrees, with market panic spreading and investor confidence severely shaken.

In the stock market, after the policy announcement, the three major US stock indexes plummeted. On April 3rd, Trump announced tariffs, causing the Dow Jones Index to drop by 2.72%, the S&P 500 to fall by 3.16%, and the Nasdaq to decline by 4.24%. Manufacturing companies such as General Motors and Ford continued to be under pressure, and Tesla fell by over 7% due to its reliance on overseas parts supply chains. As a result, other major global stock markets also experienced declines. In the Asia-Pacific region, on April 7th, the A-share market opened with all three major indexes collectively opening significantly lower: the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3193.10 points, down by 4.46%; the Shenzhen Component Index opened at 9747.66 points, down by 5.96%; and the ChiNext Index opened at 1925.64 points, down by 6.77%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index opened down by 9.28%, and the Hang Seng TECH Index opened down by 11.15%. Stocks such as Lenovo Group, Sunny Optical Technology, Alibaba, and Tencent all plummeted by over 10%. Before the market opened in Japan, the Nikkei 225 Index and TOPIX Index futures on the Tokyo Stock Exchange were temporarily halted from trading after hitting the limit down. When trading resumed, the Japanese stock market opened lower and quickly expanded the decline, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling by over 8% at one point, hitting a new low since October 2023. The South Korean composite index also dropped by nearly 5%, reaching a new low since November 2023, and KOSPI 200 index futures were suspended twice.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index is fluctuating dramatically. Due to the possibility that tariff policies may lead to a slowdown in US economic growth and an increase in inflation, market confidence in the US dollar has been affected, causing the US dollar index to weaken. At the same time, other currencies have also been impacted to varying degrees. The RMB exchange rate has been affected by tariffs, and short-term fluctuations in the US dollar against the RMB have intensified, with the expected range on April 7th being 7.23 - 7.34. Currencies such as the yen and the euro have also experienced varying degrees of volatility. The US dollar lost ground against the yen, falling below 145 for the first time since October last year, with a decline of 1.29%. The overnight implied volatility of the US dollar against the yen rose to 21.145%, reaching a new high since November 2024.

In the bond market, US bonds are favored by investors for their safe-haven properties, leading to price increases. The yield on the US two-year Treasury fell to 3.4450%, the lowest level since September 2022; the yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell by about 10 basis points to 3.904%. JPMorgan strategist Barry believes that US Treasury prices are expected to continue to rise, with the Fed expected to cut rates at every FOMC monetary policy meeting from now until January 2026. The turbulence in global financial markets not only reflects investors’ concerns about tariff policies but also signals increased uncertainty in global economic growth.

3.3 Preliminary Changes in the International Trade Pattern

The implementation of Trump’s 2025 tariff policy has triggered a series of initial changes in the international trade landscape, which have had a significant impact on global trade flows and trade volumes. From the perspective of trade flows, after the United States raised tariffs, export enterprises in many countries and regions began to re-examine their market layout and look for new trading partners and markets. China, one of the main trading partners of the United States, has been particularly affected. China’s exports to the U.S. have plummeted, and many goods originally exported to the U.S. have had to move to other markets. Some Chinese companies have begun to increase their market development efforts in the European Union, ASEAN and other regions, and strive to reduce their dependence on the US market by participating in international exhibitions and establishing overseas sales channels. According to statistics, in the first quarter of 2025, China’s exports to the EU increased by 12% year-on-year, and exports to ASEAN increased by 15% year-on-year.

In addition to China, other countries and regions are also actively adjusting their trade flows. Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea are beginning to strengthen cooperation with the internal markets of Asia and promote regional trade integration. The European Union is also working to expand trade relations with emerging economies, seeking a new balance in the global trade landscape. Some developing countries that were originally dependent on the US market, such as Vietnam and India, are also actively seeking new export destinations to reduce their reliance on the US market.

In terms of trade volume, the World Trade Organization preliminarily estimated that the tariff measures introduced by the United States since early 2025 may lead to a overall contraction of global commodity trade by about 1%, a revision down by nearly 4 percentage points from previous forecasts. After the United States imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods, China’s exports to the United States significantly decreased, leading to a reduction in orders for many related industries and a shrinkage in production scale. Some U.S. companies also reduced their imports due to the increase in import costs of raw materials, which suppressed global trade volume. The U.S. automobile industry, facing an increase in tariffs on imported components, saw a rise in production costs, prompting a reduction in production scale and consequently decreasing the demand for imported components.

The trade volume between some countries and regions has increased. The implementation of regional trade agreements has reduced trade barriers between countries within the region, leading to an increase in trade volume. The entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has promoted trade exchanges among countries in the Asia-Pacific region, resulting in increased trade volume between many countries. Some countries have expanded their trade scale through strengthening bilateral trade cooperation, signing free trade agreements, and other means. China and Australia have continuously deepened their trade cooperation in areas such as agricultural products and energy, with trade volume continuing to grow.

4. Impact on Major Economies

4.1 Impact on the United States itself

4.1.1 Economic Growth and Inflation Pressure

Trump’s tariff policy in 2025 has had a significant impact on US economic growth and inflation pressure. From the perspective of economic growth, the tariff policy has brought negative impact on US GDP growth in the short term. High tariffs have led to a substantial increase in the cost of importing raw materials and components for US companies, forcing many companies to reduce production scale and lower their investment willingness. Some car manufacturers that rely on imported components have had to reduce production or even suspend some production lines due to the increased cost of components. This not only affects the profits of companies, but also leads to a reduction in employment in related industries, thereby dragging down economic growth.

According to Deutsche Bank’s prediction, tariffs may reduce the US GDP growth rate by 1%-1.5% in 2025. Saira Malik, head of equities and fixed income at US asset management company Nuveen, said that the overall impact of tariff measures announced in 2025 could drag down actual US GDP growth by 1.7%. This indicates that the negative impact of tariff policies on US economic growth is more significant, putting greater pressure on US economic growth.

In terms of inflationary pressure, tariff policies have become an important factor driving up inflation in the United States. The new tariffs directly raise the cost of living for Americans. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, a large amount of the coffee, fresh produce, and olive oil consumed by Americans is imported. Bananas from Latin America, coffee from Brazil and Colombia are subject to a 10% tariff; EU wines and olive oil face a 20% tariff; Indian basmati rice and Thai jasmine rice are subject to tariffs of 26% and 36% respectively. According to estimates from the Yale University Budget Lab, tariffs will lead to an average annual increase of $3,800 in household consumption expenditure, a 17% increase in clothing and textile prices, and a potential 46% surge in furniture prices. The catering industry is also greatly affected, as the sales of imported wines account for about a quarter of the income of a restaurant owner in Oregon, and a 20% tariff may force menu price increases.

The cost of purchasing imported raw materials and components by American companies has risen, prompting them to raise product prices and pass on the costs to consumers. Due to the increase in the cost of imported raw materials, manufacturing companies in the United States have had to raise product prices, leading to an overall increase in the price level. Consulting firm Capital Economics estimates that tariff shocks could push the US annual inflation rate above 4% by the end of the year, further exacerbating the pain of the 20% rise in prices since the epidemic for American families. As a result, interest rates may remain high for a long time, posing a serious challenge to the stable operation of the US economy.

4.1.2 Industrial Structure Adjustment and Employment Market

Trump’s tariff policy in 2025 has had a complex impact on the structural adjustment of the U.S. industry and the job market, with both positive and negative aspects. From the perspective of industrial structure adjustment, the tariff policy aims to protect the domestic manufacturing industry in the United States and promote the reshoring of manufacturing. After the policy implementation, some manufacturing companies that originally relied on imports began to reconsider producing domestically in the United States to avoid the increased costs brought about by high tariffs. Some clothing manufacturers have started to transfer production lines back to the United States from overseas, and some automotive parts manufacturers have also increased their investments in domestic production in the United States, building new production bases.

The phenomenon of industrial reshoring has to some extent driven the development of American manufacturing, promoting the optimization of industrial structure. The development of manufacturing also faces many challenges. The American manufacturing sector faces issues such as high labor costs and inadequate technological innovation, which hinder the development of the industry. The wage costs of American manufacturing workers are about 8-10 times higher than those in emerging economies, making the competitiveness of American manufacturing weaker in the international market. The American manufacturing industry also faces competition from other countries in terms of technological innovation, such as the rapid development of China in areas like 5G, artificial intelligence, posing a challenge to the technological advantage of American manufacturing.

In the labor market, tariff policies have had a significant impact on the increase and structural changes of employment positions. In the short term, tariff policies have led to a reduction in employment positions in some industries. Some enterprises that rely on imported raw materials and components have had to reduce production scale and consequently lay off employees due to increased costs. Some clothing and electronics manufacturing enterprises have had to reduce production quantity and subsequently lay off employees due to increased costs of imported raw materials. Tariff policies have also triggered retaliatory measures from trading partners, further affecting the US export industry and leading to a reduction in employment positions in related industries. US agricultural exports have been severely affected, leading many farmers to reduce planting areas and lay off agricultural workers.

Tariff policies have also to some extent promoted the increase of employment in certain industries. The reshoring of manufacturing has led to some manufacturing companies expanding their production scale in the United States, thus creating new job opportunities. Some clothing manufacturers have built new production bases in the United States and hired a large number of workers. Some emerging industries, such as new energy, artificial intelligence, etc., have also developed under the impetus of tariff policies, creating new job positions. The development of Tesla in the field of new energy vehicles has driven the growth of employment in the related industrial chain.

From the perspective of employment structure, tariff policies make the job market more inclined towards the manufacturing industry and related industries, while the growth of employment in the service industry and other industries is somewhat suppressed. This change in employment structure has far-reaching implications for the labor market and social structure in the United States. The increase in manufacturing jobs helps to improve the income and social status of blue-collar workers, but it may also lead to restrictions on the development of other industries such as the service industry, affecting the diversified development of the economy.

4.1.3 Domestic Social and Political Response

Trump’s 2025 tariff policy has triggered widespread social and political reactions within the United States, with significant differences in attitudes towards the policy among different groups and political entities. The American public’s attitude towards tariff policy is divided. Some blue-collar workers and manufacturing industry workers support the tariff policy, believing that it helps protect domestic manufacturing in the United States, increase job opportunities, and raise their income levels. In some traditional manufacturing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc., some voters support Trump’s tariff policy, hoping to revitalize local manufacturing and improve their living conditions through tariff protection.

Many American citizens also oppose tariff policies. Consumers generally feel the pressure of price increases brought by tariff policies, as they have to pay higher prices for imported goods, leading to a significant increase in the cost of living. The impact on some low-income families is particularly severe, as their consumption capacity is suppressed and their quality of life decreases. Some professionals engaged in international trade and related industries also express concerns about tariff policies, fearing that they will exacerbate trade frictions, affect the United States’ international trade position, and subsequently impact their career development and income.

There are also differences in the attitudes of American companies towards tariff policies. Some manufacturing companies, especially those with strong competitiveness in the domestic market, support tariff policies. They believe that tariff policies can protect them from the impact of foreign competitors, increase market share, and boost profits. Some American car manufacturers, under the protection of tariff policies, have reduced the competitive pressure from foreign car brands and increased their market share. Many companies oppose tariff policies. Companies that rely on imported raw materials and components have been severely affected by rising costs, leading to a serious impact on profits. Some high-tech companies, such as Apple and Google, whose product manufacturing relies on global supply chains, have seen a significant increase in production costs due to tariff policies, affecting their competitiveness and innovation. Companies engaged in export business have also been affected by retaliatory measures from trading partners, resulting in a decrease in export orders and posing challenges to business operations.

In terms of political groups, there are certain differences within the Republican Party where Trump belongs regarding tariff policies. Some Republican lawmakers support Trump’s tariff policy, seeing it as a crucial means to achieve ‘America First,’ which helps protect the country’s economic interests and employment. However, some Republican lawmakers express concerns about the tariff policy, fearing it may trigger a trade war, damage US economic interests, and affect the Republican Party’s political support rate. The Democratic Party generally opposes the tariff policy, viewing it as a form of trade protectionism that could disrupt global trade order, harm America’s international image and economic interests. Democratic lawmakers call for resolving trade issues through negotiation and cooperation rather than resorting to tariff measures.

The domestic social and political reactions in the United States to Trump’s tariff policy in 2025 indicate that the implementation of tariff policy faces many challenges and controversies. The implementation of the policy not only affects the economic interests of the United States but also triggers social and political instability factors, which have far-reaching implications for the future policy direction and international status of the United States.

4.2 Impact on China

4.2.1 Changes in Trade Scale and Structure

Trump’s 2025 tariff policy has had a significant impact on the scale of Sino-US trade and the structure of Chinese exports to the United States. In terms of trade scale, after the policy was implemented, the scale of Sino-US trade showed a significant shrinkage. The high tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods have significantly reduced the price competitiveness of Chinese goods in the US market, leading to export obstruction. The number of orders for many Chinese companies has sharply decreased, and production scale has had to be reduced. According to Chinese customs statistics, in the first half of 2025, the Sino-US trade volume decreased by 25% year-on-year, with China’s exports to the United States decreasing by 30%.

The structure of China’s exports to the United States has also changed. The products most affected by tariffs are mainly labor-intensive products and some high-tech products. In terms of labor-intensive products, the export volume of traditional export goods such as clothing, shoes, and toys has decreased significantly. Due to the increase in tariffs, the prices of these products in the U.S. market have risen, leading to a decrease in consumer purchasing intention. Some clothing companies that used to export large quantities of products to the United States are now forced to stockpile them in warehouses, facing huge inventory pressure. In terms of high-tech products, China’s electronics and communication equipment have been significantly impacted. The United States has imposed high tariffs on these products from China, restricting the market expansion of related Chinese companies and affecting the development of China’s high-tech industry. Some mobile phone manufacturers originally planned to launch new products in the U.S. market, but due to the impact of tariff policies, they have had to postpone or cancel their plans.

To cope with the impact of tariff policies on the scale and structure of trade, China can adopt a series of strategies. On the one hand, Chinese companies should actively expand into other overseas markets to reduce dependence on the U.S. Strengthening trade cooperation with the EU, ASEAN, countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, etc., by exploring new markets and seeking new export growth points. Some Chinese companies are increasing their efforts to develop the EU market by participating in international exhibitions in the EU, establishing European sales channels, etc., to enhance the visibility and market share of products in the EU market. On the other hand, China should accelerate industrial upgrading and structural adjustment to enhance the added value and competitiveness of export products. Increase investment in high-tech industries and high-end manufacturing, promote technological innovation and product upgrades for enterprises, making export products more differentiated and competitive. Some Chinese electronics companies have increased research and development investment, launched products with higher technological content and added value, and received better responses in the international market.

China can also seek to lower tariff levels and maintain the stable development of Sino-US trade by strengthening trade negotiations with the United States. Through equal and mutually beneficial negotiations, the problems existing in trade between the two sides can be resolved to create a more favorable environment for Sino-US trade.

4.2.2 Industrial Impact and Response Strategies

Trump’s 2025 tariff policy has had a significant impact on China’s related industries, especially the manufacturing and high-tech industries. In terms of manufacturing, many export-oriented manufacturing companies have been severely affected. Due to the increase in tariffs, the export costs of companies have risen sharply, and the number of orders has dropped sharply. Some traditional manufacturing companies, such as textiles, furniture, etc., which originally relied on exporting to the U.S. market, are facing tremendous survival pressure after the implementation of the tariff policy. In order to reduce costs, some companies have to take measures such as layoffs, production cuts, and even some companies are forced to shut down.

The high-tech industry has also been impacted by tariff policies. The United States has imposed high tariffs on Chinese high-tech products, restricting the market expansion and technological exchange of Chinese high-tech enterprises. In areas such as chips, artificial intelligence, and communication equipment, Chinese companies face a dual dilemma of technological blockade and market squeeze. Some chip manufacturers, due to U.S. technological blockade and tariff restrictions, are unable to obtain key technologies and equipment, severely affecting production and research and development. The United States has also implemented a series of sanctions against Chinese high-tech companies, further limiting their development.

Faced with these industrial impacts, China has taken a series of response measures. The Chinese government has increased its support for enterprises by reducing taxes and fees, providing subsidies, etc., to lower operating costs and alleviate financial pressure. The government also encourages enterprises to increase investment in technological innovation, improve the technological content and added value of products, and enhance their competitiveness. Some local governments have provided tax breaks and financial subsidies to manufacturing enterprises to help them through difficult times. With the support of the government, some high-tech enterprises have increased their investment in research and development, overcome key technological bottlenecks, and enhanced the competitiveness of their products.

Chinese companies are also taking active measures to respond. Many companies have accelerated the pace of industrial upgrading and transformation, reducing costs and improving product quality by increasing production efficiency and optimizing product structure. Some manufacturing companies have introduced advanced production equipment and technology to achieve automated production, increase production efficiency, and reduce labor costs. Some companies are expanding into the domestic market, reducing reliance on export markets by expanding domestic demand. Some companies that were originally dependent on exports are increasing their sales efforts in the domestic market, opening up domestic sales channels through a combination of online and offline methods.

China has also strengthened cooperation with other countries and regions to promote regional economic integration. By participating in and promoting the negotiation and signing of free trade agreements, expanding market openness, and expanding trade space. China actively participates in the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), strengthens economic cooperation with ASEAN countries, and promotes regional trade liberalization and economic integration.

4.2.3 Economic Transformation and Market Diversification

Trump’s tariff policy in 2025 has to some extent promoted the transformation of the Chinese economy. To cope with the pressure brought by tariffs, Chinese companies have accelerated the pace of technological innovation and industrial upgrading, promoting the transformation of the economy towards high-quality development. Many companies have increased investment in research and development, improved the technological content and added value of products, and reduced reliance on low value-added, labor-intensive industries. In the manufacturing sector, some companies have started to move towards smart manufacturing and green manufacturing, introducing advanced production technologies and management models to improve production efficiency and product quality. Some automobile manufacturers have increased their research and development and production investment in new energy vehicles, promoting the transformation of the automotive industry towards green and intelligent directions.

In the high-tech industry, Chinese companies pay more attention to independent innovation and strive to break through the bottlenecks of key core technologies. In areas such as chips, artificial intelligence, and 5G, Chinese companies have increased their R&D efforts and have achieved a series of important results. Some chip manufacturing companies have achieved breakthroughs in chip technology and improved the performance and localization rate of chips through independent research and development. These efforts not only help to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese companies in the international market but also promote the optimization and upgrading of China’s economic structure.

In terms of market diversification, China actively explores other overseas markets, achieving significant progress and results. China has strengthened its trade cooperation with the European Union, and the trade volume between the two sides continues to expand in multiple areas. In high-end manufacturing, new energy, digital economy, and other fields, the cooperation between China and the European Union is becoming increasingly close. China’s electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and others are widely welcomed in the EU market, with export volumes continuing to grow. China’s trade cooperation with ASEAN is also deepening, with ASEAN becoming one of China’s largest trading partners. The entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) further promotes trade liberalization and economic integration between China and ASEAN. China and ASEAN have frequent trade exchanges in areas such as agricultural products, electronic products, and machinery, with the cooperation in industrial and supply chains continuously strengthening.

China is actively expanding its market in countries along the “Belt and Road” initiative, strengthening cooperation in infrastructure construction, trade, and investment with these countries. Through the “Belt and Road” initiative, China and countries along the route have achieved mutual benefit, and common development. In terms of infrastructure construction, China has assisted some countries in building roads, railways, ports, and other infrastructure, promoting local economic development. In terms of trade, the scale of trade between China and countries along the route continues to expand, and the trade structure continues to optimize. In terms of investment cooperation, Chinese companies have increased their investment in countries along the route, promoting local industrial development and employment growth.

The implementation of a diversified market strategy has enabled China to reduce its reliance on the U.S. market, enhancing economic resilience and risk resistance. By expanding into multiple overseas markets, Chinese companies are better equipped to cope with changes in the international trade environment and achieve sustainable development.

4.3 Impact on other economies

4.3.1 Response of the EU to Economic Changes

In response to Trump’s 2025 tariff policy, the EU has taken a series of countermeasures to safeguard its economic interests. The EU imposes a 25% tariff on US imports, taxing products such as soybeans, diamonds, orange juice, poultry, motorcycles, steel, aluminum, and tobacco worth 21 billion euros. The European Commission stated in a declaration that the US tariffs are unreasonable and destructive, causing economic harm to both sides and the global economy. The EU hopes to reach a balanced and mutually beneficial negotiation with the US, but will also use ‘all available tools’ for countermeasures when necessary, including the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which was introduced in 2023 but never triggered, targeting US technology, banking, and other service industries.

These countermeasures have had various impacts on the EU economy. In terms of trade, EU exports to the United States have been somewhat affected. As an important trading partner of the EU, after the EU imposed tariffs on US exports, the cost for American consumers to purchase EU products increased, leading to a decrease in demand for EU products in the US market. EU industries such as automobiles and agricultural products face challenges in exporting to the US, with some automobile manufacturers experiencing reduced orders for exports to the US, and a decrease in the export price competitiveness of agricultural products. The EU’s imposition of tariffs on US imports also increases the cost for EU companies to import related US products, affecting the companies’ production and operations.

In terms of industry, some industries in the European Union have been directly impacted by tariff policies. The steel and aluminum industries, due to the tariffs imposed by the United States on steel and aluminum products from the European Union, are facing issues such as a decrease in market share and excess production capacity. These enterprises have to take measures such as production cuts and layoffs to deal with the crisis. Some industries in the European Union that rely on imported raw materials and components from the United States have also been affected by rising costs, weakening the competitiveness of enterprises. Some electronics manufacturing companies, due to increased costs of importing components such as chips from the United States, have seen an increase in product prices and a decrease in market competitiveness.

The tariff policy has also brought opportunities to some industries in the European Union. Some local industries in the EU, such as agriculture and manufacturing, have gained market share under tariff protection. Due to the imposition of tariffs on American agricultural products, EU agricultural enterprises have reduced the competitive pressure from the United States, increased domestic market demand, and improved production scale and profits. The EU is also accelerating the upgrading and transformation of industries, enhancing the competitiveness of industries by increasing the technological content and added value of industries. In the field of new energy, digital economy, etc., the EU has increased investment and research and development efforts to promote the development of related industries.

4.3.2 Challenges and Opportunities in Southeast Asian Countries

Trump’s 2025 tariff policy has brought many challenges to Southeast Asian countries. Order transfer is a significant issue, as the high tariffs imposed by the United States on goods from Southeast Asian countries have caused many orders that were originally exported to the United States to start flowing to other regions. The textile industry in countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia has been greatly impacted, as the United States is one of the main export markets for textile products from these countries. The increase in tariffs has led to a decrease in the price competitiveness of textile products from these countries in the U.S. market, resulting in a significant reduction in orders. According to relevant data, in the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s textile exports to the U.S. decreased by 35% year-on-year, and Cambodia’s garment industry is also facing a crisis of order loss and factory shutdowns.

The ambiguity of rules of origin has increased the compliance difficulty for enterprises in Southeast Asian countries. In international trade, origin is usually defined as the last country where a ‘substantial transformation’ occurred, which directly affects the tariff treatment of products and their eligibility for market access. However, the WTO has not provided detailed criteria for ‘substantial transformation,’ and such determinations mainly rely on bilateral or multilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Many Southeast Asian countries do not have an FTA with the United States, leading to uncertainties for both sides regarding origin.

5. The International Impact of Policies and Challenges to the Multilateral Trading System

5.1 International Organizations’ Statements and Positions

Trump’s 2025 tariff policy has triggered widespread attention from international organizations. The United Nations, WTO, and other international organizations have expressed concerns and opposition to the policy. UN Secretary-General Guterres pointed out that there are no winners in a trade war, Trump’s tariff policy is extremely negative, and everyone is likely to be a loser. He is particularly concerned about the most vulnerable developing countries, as the impact of a trade war on them would be more disastrous. Guterres emphasized that in an interconnected global economy, it is important for UN member states to resolve trade disputes through constructive engagement, either through the United Nations or other mechanisms. The U.S. tariff policy may have a serious impact on the global economy. In a low-growth, high-debt global economy, increasing tariffs could weaken investment and trade flows, add uncertainty to an already fragile environment, erode confidence, slow down investment, and threaten development gains, especially in the most vulnerable economies.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has also expressed deep concerns about Trump’s tariff policy. WTO Director-General Yvonne Iwella stated that the United States’ series of tariff policies have had a significant impact on global trade and economic growth prospects. Preliminary analysis indicates that the U.S. tariff measures, combined with other measures implemented since early 2025, could lead to an overall 1% contraction in global commodity trade volume for the year, a reduction of nearly four percentage points from previous forecasts. Iwella expressed deep concern about this decline and the potential escalation of tariff wars, noting that retaliatory measures could further reduce trade. The WTO Secretariat is closely monitoring and analyzing U.S. tariff measures, with many members already in contact with the WTO. The WTO is actively engaging with them to address their questions about the potential impact on their economies and the global trading system. Iwella called on all members to respond to the resulting pressure with a responsible attitude, prevent further escalation of trade tensions, and emphasized that the establishment of the WTO is precisely to provide services at such times, as a platform for dialogue to prevent the escalation of trade conflicts, support an open and predictable trade environment, encourage constructive engagement, and seek cooperative solutions.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Georgieva stated that the IMF is still evaluating the macroeconomic impact of the announced tariff measures, but at a time of weak economic growth, these measures evidently pose significant risks to the global outlook. She called for constructive cooperation between the United States and its trading partners to resolve trade tensions and reduce uncertainty. Georgieva also mentioned that the IMF may slightly downgrade its global economic growth forecast in the latest World Economic Outlook report, and trade tensions may hinder U.S. economic growth.

The statements and positions of these international organizations reflect a widespread consensus on the negative impact of Trump’s 2025 tariff policy on the global economy and trade order. The calls and suggestions of international organizations aim to urge the United States to reexamine its tariff policy, resolve trade disputes through dialogue and cooperation, and safeguard the stability and development of the global economy. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about whether the United States will heed these recommendations.

5.2 Joint Response Trend in Various Countries

Faced with Trump’s 2025 tariff policy, countries have strengthened cooperation, coordinated their positions, and jointly responded to the United States’ trade protectionist behavior. China, the European Union, ASEAN, and other countries and regions actively seek cooperation, enhance their discourse power in international trade, and mitigate the negative impact of US tariff policies through establishing joint response mechanisms, and signing trade agreements.

China and the European Union have closely cooperated in dealing with the US tariff policy. As two of the world’s major economies, China and the EU are highly complementary in the field of economy and trade, with deep integration of industrial chains. Faced with the pressure of US tariffs, both sides have strengthened communication and coordination to jointly uphold free and open trade and investment, as well as maintain the stability and smooth operation of the global industrial and supply chains. On April 8, 2025, during a phone call between Chinese senior officials and European Commission President von der Leyen, the Chinese side expressed its willingness to work hand in hand with the European side to expand practical cooperation and promote continuous improvement and development of China-EU relations. China and the EU should strengthen communication and coordination, expand mutual openness, and jointly address the challenges brought about by the US tariff policy. The EU also expressed its expectation for a timely new EU-China summit to summarize the past, look forward to the future, and work with China to advance high-level dialogues in various fields and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation in economy and trade, green economy, climate change, and other areas.

China has also strengthened cooperation with ASEAN. ASEAN is an important trading partner of China, and the two sides have extensive cooperation in trade, investment, infrastructure construction, and other fields. Faced with the tariff policies of the United States, China and ASEAN have further deepened the regional economic integration process and strengthened cooperation in the industrial and supply chains. China and ASEAN are actively promoting the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), promoting the liberalization and facilitation of trade and investment in the region through measures such as reducing tariffs and barriers to trade. The two sides have also strengthened cooperation in emerging fields such as digital economy and green economy, jointly addressing the challenges brought about by global economic changes.

In the process of dealing with the US tariff policy, various countries have also coordinated their positions in international organizations and made joint voices to exert public opinion pressure on the United States. At the meeting of the WTO Council on Trade in Goods, China took the initiative to set up an agenda item, expressed grave concern about the “reciprocal tariff” measures of the United States and its adverse impact, and demanded that the United States earnestly abide by WTO rules and avoid negative impacts on the global economy and the multilateral trading system. Forty-six WTO members, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Norway, South Korea, Malaysia, Brazil, Peru, Kazakhstan and Chad, spoke under the agenda set by China, expressing concern about the “reciprocal tariff” measures of the United States and calling on the United States to earnestly abide by WTO rules. The joint action of various countries shows that the US tariff policy has been widely opposed by the international community, and also shows the firm determination of all countries to safeguard the multilateral trading system and oppose trade protectionism.

5.3 Impact on the Multilateral Trading System

Trump’s 2025 tariff policy has had a severe impact on the multilateral trading system, having a devastating impact on core elements of the multilateral trading system, such as WTO rules and the principle of most-favored-nation treatment. The U.S. policy of “reciprocal tariffs” violates WTO rules and seriously undermines the multilateral trading system. The policy prioritizes the interests of the United States at the expense of the legitimate rights and interests of others, and its concept of “reciprocity” is extremely narrow in scope, which runs counter to the principle of reciprocity of the overall balance of rights and obligations emphasized by the WTO. When calculating “reciprocal tariffs”, the United States not only considers tariff factors, but also takes into account so-called non-tariff barriers, domestic taxes such as value-added tax, exchange rate policy, labor policy, etc., which are often arbitrary and lack scientific basis.

The United States’ unilateral imposition of discriminatory tariffs flagrantly violates the fundamental principle of the WTO’s Most Favored Nation treatment. The Most Favored Nation treatment principle requires that any preferential treatment, privileges, and exemptions granted to any other member should be immediately and unconditionally extended to all other members. However, the U.S.’s tariff policy, which sets differentiated tariff rates for different countries and imposes high tariffs on some countries, undermines this fair and non-discriminatory principle, shaking the foundation of the multilateral trading system. By imposing different tariff rates on major trading partners such as China, the European Union, and Japan, the United States has broken the fair competitive environment under the Most Favored Nation treatment principle and disrupted the international trade order.

The US tariff policy has also weakened the authority of the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. When the US has a trade dispute with other countries, instead of resolving the issue through the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, the US unilaterally takes tariff measures, rendering the WTO dispute settlement mechanism unable to play its proper role. The US tariff measures against other countries have triggered retaliatory measures from other countries, leading to a vicious cycle of trade wars, further undermining the stability and predictability of the multilateral trading system. After the US imposed tariffs on the EU, the EU took retaliatory measures, escalating trade frictions between the two sides and deteriorating the global trade environment.

The United States’ tariff policy has also had a negative impact on the formulation and improvement of global trade rules. In the multilateral trading system, countries formulate and improve trade rules through negotiation and consultation to promote the liberalization and facilitation of global trade. The United States’ trade protectionist behavior has undermined confidence in multilateral trade negotiations, hindering the updating and improvement of trade rules. This not only affects the resolution of current global trade issues, but also hinders the healthy development of the future global trade system. The United States insists on its position in trade negotiations and is unwilling to make concessions, leading to some multilateral trade negotiations being deadlocked and unable to reach consensus.

Trump’s tariff policy in 2025 has a multifaceted impact on the multilateral trading system, seriously threatening the stability and development of global trade. The international community needs to work together to strengthen cooperation, maintain the authority and effectiveness of the multilateral trading system, and promote the direction of global trade towards greater fairness, openness, and inclusiveness.

6. Case Analysis: Encounters of Typical Industries and Enterprises

6.1 Automotive Industry: Supply Chain Disruption and Cost Increase

Trump’s tariff policy in 2025 has had a huge impact on the automotive industry, with companies like General Motors and Toyota being hit hard. The automotive industry is a typical representative of global division of labor, with components of a car often coming from dozens of countries. About 50% of cars in the US market are imported, and even domestically produced vehicles rely on overseas supplies for 60% of their components. The Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars and parts, directly leading to the disruption of the automotive industry supply chain and a significant increase in production costs.

Using General Motors as an example, GM has a broad supply chain system globally, with some components imported from countries such as China, Mexico, and Canada. After the tariff policy implementation, the cost of importing components for GM has significantly increased. The tariff increase on some electronic components imported from China has raised the cost of each component by around 25%. This not only increases production costs but also affects the stability of the supply chain. Due to the uncertainty of tariffs, suppliers may adjust their supply strategies, leading to delays or interruptions in component supply, impacting the company’s production plans.

Toyota Motor Corporation is also facing similar challenges. Toyota has a high market share in the U.S. market, and some of its vehicle parts rely on imports. After the implementation of tariff policies, the cost of exporting cars to the United States has significantly increased for Toyota. It is estimated that the cost of exporting a car to the United States by Toyota may increase by around $5000. To cope with the pressure of rising costs, Toyota has to take a series of measures, such as optimizing the supply chain and improving production efficiency. However, these measures are difficult to fully offset the impact of tariffs in the short term, and Toyota’s profit margin has been severely squeezed.

Tariff policies have also impacted the market competition in the automotive industry. Prices of imported and domestically produced cars have both increased, with major brands heavily reliant on imports suffering setbacks. The American Automobile Association (AAA) predicts an 8% increase in the average selling price of imported cars, while domestically produced cars are expected to rise by about 3% due to rising component costs. This benefits car manufacturers with high localization levels (such as Tesla and General Motors), while posing a heavy blow to brands heavily reliant on imports (such as Hyundai and Toyota). Consumers may shift towards lower-priced used cars or domestic brands, leading to a decline in imported car sales. The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) predicts an overall sales decrease of 10%.

6.2 Electronics Industry: Dual Pressure from the Consumer End and the Industrial End

Trump’s tariff policy in 2025 has had a profound impact on the electronics industry, with companies like Apple and Samsung facing dual pressures from the consumer end and the industry end. The electronics industry is highly globalized, with production and sales of products relying on a global supply chain. Apple’s product manufacturing relies heavily on the supply chain in China and other countries, with 90% of iPhones being assembled in China. The Trump administration’s imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods has put Apple in a dilemma of increased costs.

If Apple passes on the increased costs to consumers, the resulting price increase will affect sales. If they absorb the costs themselves, it will squeeze profit margins. In April 2025, due to factors such as the Trump administration’s tariff policy, Apple’s stock price plummeted significantly. From April 2nd to April 9th, Apple’s stock price dropped from $223.8 to $172.4, evaporating a market value of over $770 billion in just four days. On April 3rd alone, Apple plummeted by 9.32%, evaporating nearly $150 billion in market value, marking the largest single-day drop since 2022. Stocks of Apple’s supply chain companies also collectively tumbled, affecting Asian tech stocks such as TSMC.

Samsung Electronics has also been impacted by tariff policies. Samsung has multiple production bases and sales markets globally, and its production and sales involve multiple countries and regions. After the implementation of tariff policies, the cost of importing raw materials and components by Samsung has increased, and its product exports also face tariff barriers. The increase in tariffs on some electronic components imported from China by Samsung has led to cost increases, affecting the competitiveness of its products. When exporting electronic products to the United States, Samsung also needs to pay high tariffs, resulting in price increases and impacting market share.

The tariff policy has also affected the upstream and downstream industries of the electronics industry. Upstream component suppliers are facing pressure from reduced orders, while downstream retailers are struggling with rising product prices and declining sales volume. Some electronic component suppliers have had to reduce production scale or even face the risk of closure due to reduced orders from companies such as Apple and Samsung. Meanwhile, downstream retailers are experiencing decreased consumer purchasing willingness and impacted sales volume due to price increases, resulting in compressed profit margins.

6.3 Agriculture: Export Restrictions on Agricultural Products and Farmers’ Dilemma

Trump’s 2025 tariff policy has had a serious impact on the agricultural sector, with US soybeans, Chinese fruits, and other exports facing difficulties, impacting farmers’ incomes. The US is one of the world’s largest agricultural exporting countries, with soybeans being a key export product. The Trump administration’s tariff policy has triggered retaliatory tariff threats from major agricultural importers, leading to obstacles in US agricultural exports.

China is one of the main importers of soybeans from the United States. In 2024, U.S. soybean exports to China accounted for 52% of its total exports (12.8 billion U.S. dollars). However, with the escalation of the trade war, China imposed additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans, significantly reducing the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans in the Chinese market. If China raises soybean tariffs to 30%-35%, U.S. soybean exports to China in 2025 may halve again, with Brazil and Argentina filling the gap left by U.S. soybeans. In April 2025, impacted by tariff policies, Chicago soybean futures fell below $10 for the first time in over three months, leading to a restructuring of the global soybean trade landscape.

China’s fruit exports have also been affected by tariff policies. China is a major fruit producer, and some of its fruits are exported to the US market. The Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese fruits has led to price increases and decreased sales in the US market. Some Chinese fruit companies that originally relied on the US market are now facing challenges such as reduced orders and accumulated inventory due to the implementation of tariff policies.

Tariff policies have directly impacted farmers’ income. American farmers have seen a significant decrease in income due to blocked soybean exports. To compensate for the losses, the U.S. government has allocated $61 billion, but the long-term loss of market share is difficult to reverse. The decrease in orders from Chinese fruit export companies has also led to a decline in related farmers’ income, affecting the development of rural economy.

7. Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations

7.1 Policy Trend Prediction

From the perspective of the domestic political situation in the United States, the future adjustment of Trump’s tariff policy faces a complex political game. There are divisions within the Republican Party where Trump belongs regarding the tariff policy. Some lawmakers are concerned about the negative impact of the tariff policy on the U.S. economy, especially those lawmakers in regions where companies rely on imported raw materials and components. They may exert pressure on Trump to adjust his tariff policy. The Democratic Party is firmly against the tariff policy, viewing it as a short-sighted trade protectionist behavior that damages the economic interests and international image of the United States. If the Democratic Party gains more political power in future elections, they are likely to push for reform of the tariff policy, reducing tariff levels, and restoring a policy orientation towards free trade.

The economic situation will also be an important factor affecting the direction of tariff policies. If the tariff policy leads to negative consequences such as slowing US economic growth, rising inflation, and job losses continue to worsen, the US government may have to reconsider tariff policies and take measures to adjust them. If domestic US companies reduce production or go bankrupt in large numbers due to the increase in tariff costs, causing a significant rise in unemployment, the government may consider reducing tariffs to ease business pressure and promote economic recovery. Conversely, if the tariff policy to some extent achieves the goals of the Trump administration, such as reshoring of manufacturing and narrowing trade deficits, the tariff policy may continue to be maintained for a certain period of time.

International pressure is also an undeniable factor. Trump’s tariff policy has triggered widespread opposition from the international community, prompting countries to take retaliatory measures, leading to an escalation of global trade frictions. The United States’ allies are also unhappy with its tariff policy, which may affect the country’s position and influence on the international political and economic stage. In this situation, the United States may face significant pressure from the international community and may have to resolve trade disputes through negotiation and consultation, adjusting its tariff policy. The United States may engage in bilateral or multilateral trade negotiations with major trading partners to seek solutions to reduce tariffs and address trade imbalances, in order to ease trade tensions and maintain global trade order.

7.2 Potential Subsequent Impact on the Global Economy

If Trump’s tariff policy continues, global economic growth will face greater downward pressure. The increase in tariffs has significantly raised the cost of international trade, suppressing the growth of global trade. The production and investment decisions of companies are affected, and the stability of global industrial chains and supply chains is disrupted. This will lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, an increase in unemployment, and exacerbate inflation. Some developing countries that rely on exports may face the risk of economic recession, while economic growth in developed countries will also be dragged down. Trade frictions between the United States and major economies such as China and the European Union continue to escalate, which may lead to a significant decrease in global trade volume, thereby affecting global economic growth.

The trade landscape is also undergoing profound changes. In order to cope with the U.S. tariff policies, countries will accelerate the adjustment of their trade strategies, seeking new trade partners and markets. The importance of regional trade agreements will be further highlighted, with countries strengthening economic cooperation within the region and promoting regional economic integration. Member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) may deepen their cooperation further, expanding regional trade and investment. Some countries may reduce their reliance on the U.S. market, strengthen trade with other countries, leading to changes in global trade flows. China may increase its efforts to open up markets along the Belt and Road, promoting trade and investment cooperation with these countries.

The financial markets will continue to be impacted. Trade frictions and economic uncertainty caused by tariff policies will lead to a decrease in investor confidence and unstable capital flows. Stock, foreign exchange, bond, and other financial markets will experience severe volatility, increased exchange rate risks, and rising financing costs for businesses. Some emerging market countries may face issues such as capital outflows and currency depreciation, threatening financial stability. The uncertainty of tariff policies may lead to a sustained decline in the U.S. stock market, prompting investors to shift funds to safe-haven assets, causing bond prices to rise and yields to fall.

If Trump’s tariff policy is adjusted, global economic growth may be boosted to some extent. The reduction in trade costs will promote the recovery and growth of global trade, enhance the enthusiasm for production and investment of enterprises, and gradually stabilize the global industrial chain and supply chain. This will help drive global economic growth, reduce unemployment, and stabilize inflation. The trade landscape will gradually stabilize, and countries will readjust trade relations under new trade rules and frameworks to achieve balanced and sustainable trade. The uncertainty in the financial markets will diminish, investor confidence will gradually recover, capital flows will be more stable, and the financial markets will operate more steadily.

7.3 Strategies for Various Countries

For governments, it is necessary to strengthen multilateral cooperation and jointly maintain the multilateral trading system. Actively participate in and promote the reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO), enhance its authority and effectiveness in global trade governance. Resolve trade disputes with the United States through the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism to safeguard their legitimate rights and interests. Countries should also enhance cooperation in other international organizations and platforms to jointly address the challenges of trade protectionism.

Countries should strengthen bilateral and regional trade cooperation with other countries, promote the negotiation and signing of free trade agreements. By expanding market openness, reducing trade barriers, and facilitating the liberalization of trade and investment. The EU should enhance trade cooperation with China, ASEAN, and other countries and regions, promote the negotiation and signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between China and the EU, and deepen economic cooperation with ASEAN. Countries should also actively participate in regional economic integration processes, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in the Asia-Pacific region, to enhance their position and influence in regional economic cooperation.

Governments should strengthen support and guidance for their own enterprises. By providing policy support, financial subsidies, tax incentives, and other measures, help enterprises reduce costs and enhance competitiveness. Encourage enterprises to increase investment in technological innovation, promote industrial upgrading and transformation, and increase the added value and technological content of products. Governments should also enhance information services for enterprises, timely provide information on international market trends and trade policies, and assist enterprises in formulating reasonable market strategies.

For enterprises, it is necessary to strengthen risk management and deal with the uncertainty brought by tariff policies. By optimizing supply chain management, reducing reliance on a single market and supplier, and diversifying risks. Enterprises can seek new suppliers globally, establish a diversified supply chain system to reduce the risks of raw material supply interruptions and cost increases due to tariff policies. Enterprises should also strengthen cost control, improve production efficiency, reduce production costs through technological innovation and management innovation, enhance product quality, and increase market competitiveness.

Enterprises should actively expand the market, reduce their reliance on the US market, and strengthen the development of markets in other countries and regions, seeking new sales channels and customer groups. By participating in international exhibitions, conducting e-commerce, and other means, they can enhance the visibility and market share of their products. Enterprises should also pay attention to the development opportunities in emerging markets, such as countries along the “Belt and Road” initiative, Africa, Latin America, and actively participate in local economic development and market expansion.

Enterprises should strengthen technological innovation and industrial upgrading, increase the added value and competitiveness of products. Increase investment in research and development, promote technological innovation and product upgrading, and develop products with independent intellectual property rights and core competitiveness. By increasing the technological content and added value of products, reducing the impact of tariffs on product prices, and enhancing the competitiveness of products in the international market. Enterprises should also strengthen brand building, enhance brand awareness and reputation, and win market share with brand advantages.

Conclusion

This study delves into the Trump 2025 tariff policy, finding that its main content is centered on ‘equal tariffs’, imposing a 10% base tariff on all imported goods, and setting differentiated additional tariff rates for different countries, covering a wide range of goods, and also taking into account non-tariff barriers. The introduction of this policy stems from long-standing trade deficits in the United States, the need for industrial restructuring, and political considerations of the Trump administration, including fulfilling campaign promises and geopolitical factors.

After the implementation of the policy, the global financial market was in turmoil, and the international trade pattern changed initially. For the United States itself, economic growth faced downward pressure, inflation pressure increased, industrial restructuring faced challenges, the employment market was impacted, and domestic social and political reactions varied. For China, the trade scale shrank, the structure of export commodities changed, related industries were affected, but it also to some extent promoted economic transformation and market diversification. For other economies, the European Union took countermeasures, and the economy was affected in many ways; Southeast Asian countries faced challenges such as order transfer and vague rules of origin determination, but also had opportunities such as industrial transfer.