CLARITY法案能否通过？

Current probability of passage is relatively high, but the legislative window is narrowing. As of May 7, Polymarket predicts about a 65% chance of passing within 2026, rising to 70% on May 5. The core driver is the stablecoin reward compromise reached on May 1: banning static yields "economically or functionally equivalent to" bank deposit interest, while retaining rewards linked to real activities such as trading and consumption. This move resolves nearly a year of industry controversy, turning former opponents like Coinbase into supporters. The White House also stated efforts to pass the bill before July 4.

However, the window for passage is extremely tight. As of May 7, the Senate Banking Committee has not rescheduled hearings, but the week of May 11 is seen as the earliest possible review date. Resistance comes from two sides: banking groups still strongly oppose, warning that current reward provisions could still trigger deposit outflows; some senators demand the inclusion of ethical clauses prohibiting public officials from profiting from their positions, or they will vote against. Additionally, the November midterm elections serve as a hard deadline—if the House changes hands, the bill’s political foundation could collapse. Overall, if substantial progress is not made by May, the probability of passage in 2026 will significantly decline.

If passed, the structural impact on the crypto market

If the bill passes, three profound changes will occur.

First, the institutional entry channel opens. The core of the bill is to end the jurisdictional vacuum between the SEC and CFTC by establishing a unified asset classification standard and exchange registration framework, eliminating compliance uncertainties for pension funds, insurance companies, and other conservative capital. The improvement of custody rules will also remove compliance barriers on institutional balance sheets, promoting Bitcoin and other digital commodities from speculative to structurally demanded assets.

Second, the reshaping of the stablecoin economy model. Section 404’s stablecoin reward clause delineates clear boundaries in the game between traditional banking and crypto industries: stable idle holdings yields are prohibited, but reward mechanisms based on real activities within platforms are preserved. This arrangement addresses banking sector concerns over systemic risks and provides legal protection for the core business models of platforms.

Third, the acceleration of industry concentration. Stricter compliance requirements will push small and medium exchanges and wallet service providers to face higher operating costs, driving market concentration toward leading compliant firms. Meanwhile, the regulatory framework established by the U.S. could serve as a reference model for global digital asset rules, influencing cross-border capital flows and international regulatory coordination.#CLARITY法案推进受阻