Trump’s “Freedom Plan” just stepped on the gas, then was abruptly slammed by the Middle East! BTC bulls: I’ve already put on my pants

During the May Day holiday, the global markets were still immersed in the joy of the “big rebound of risk assets.” Trump’s high-profile “Freedom Plan,” with its core logic being simple: suppress energy, stabilize the dollar, and win votes. The market immediately understood—oil prices fell, inflation eased, expectations of rate cuts rose, and Bitcoin shot up to $80,000 as if injected with adrenaline.
Who knew, the Middle East suddenly didn’t play fair.
After the Fuchairah oil tank was attacked, Brent crude oil surged overnight to $114. When Wall Street traders opened their screens in the early morning, they almost thought their computers had switched back to 2022. BTC instantly transformed from “digital gold” into “high-volatility scare coin.”
Now, the most critical question in the market is: “How long can the ‘Freedom Plan’ last?”
In plain terms, the biggest fear of this plan is oil prices spiraling out of control. Because once oil prices stabilize above $110, US inflation will heat up again like reheated pork. The Federal Reserve’s original plan of small rate cuts might have to be put back in the drawer.
And Trump is now in a very awkward position.
Continue to suppress oil prices? Need Iran’s cooperation.
Continue sanctions on Iran? Oil prices will keep soaring.
So Oman negotiations suddenly become the global asset pricing center. Everyone is now watching one question: Will Iran loosen its stance on uranium enrichment?
If they do, the market will interpret it as:
“Middle East risk decreases → crude oil falls back → Fed has room to cut rates again → risk assets continue to party.”
But if negotiations collapse, the plot thickens.
Oil prices keep rising, US bond yields continue to spike, tech stocks fall first, Bitcoin follows. At that point, the market will re-enter the risk-averse mode of “cash is king.”
But there’s a particularly interesting phenomenon now:
Although Bitcoin has pulled back, it hasn’t crashed outright like before. This shows institutions are starting to treat BTC as a “semi-risk, semi-safe-haven” strange asset.
When rising, it’s like Nasdaq.
When chaotic, it’s like gold.
During crashes, it’s like altcoins.
Its mental state is very complex.
My trading strategy is actually very simple:
First, don’t chase high oil prices.
War sentiment is the easiest to create a peak market.
Second, don’t blindly short BTC.
Because as long as the market re-trades “rate cut expectations,” funds will come back.
Third, focus on the Oman negotiation window.
In the next two weeks, it’s very likely to determine the entire summer trend.
The market now isn’t about bull or bear, but:
“How many hours does the Middle East want traders to sleep?”#比特币站稳8万关口