ed Chair Warsh delivers his first congressional testimony this week — House on Tuesday, Senate on Wednesday — with markets laser-focused on rate signals. Tuesday's 6月CPI drops just 90 minutes before his first appearance. Inflation data meets monetary policy in real time. Swaps price ~32bps of hikes by year-end, while Kalshi puts hike odds at 54%. The split hinges on energy — lower oil gives the Fed room to wait, sticky inflation forces its hand. CPI first, Warsh then, 90 minutes apart. Whether data and tone align will decide the direction for yields, dollar, and risk assets.
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