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I noticed an interesting signal in the market — the Bitcoin premium index has been in the negative for 40 consecutive days. This is the longest period of negative values since 2023. The current figure is around -0.05%, whereas at the beginning of February it was -0.22%. It turns out that American investors are systematically paying less than the rest of the world, or simply not active. What’s interesting — Bitcoin has risen about 15% from the February low and is now trading around 71.65k USD, but the premium has not yet recovered to the positive zone. This indicates that the main purchases occurred outside US trading hours and platforms. Previously, during a 30-day rebound, Americans would return to the market, but this time, something is not happening. I also noticed that searches for the phrase “bitcoin zero” in the US reached record highs at the beginning of the month — this points to growing skepticism among American investors. Globally, there is no such interest in this search. It looks like the clock at 22:22 — a moment to stop and rethink the situation. The only positive is that the premium is gradually becoming less negative, but this may take some time. Regarding XRP, it’s a different story — the coin dropped from 1.36 to 1.33 on high volumes. It is now trading around 1.33, down 1.33% for the day. The 1.35 level has turned into resistance, with the zone of 1.40-1.41, which repeatedly limited rebounds. It looks like aggressive selling rather than just movement on low liquidity.

Recently, I noticed that the US Bitcoin spot ETF has been performing well this week. With net inflows of $1.1 billion for three consecutive days, it is the strongest performance in six weeks. It looks like US demand is really starting to pick up again. BlackRock’s IBIT took the lion’s share—about $650 million—and Grayscale’s GBTC also saw its largest single-day inflow since converting to an ETF on Wednesday. What’s interesting is that this wave of capital inflows is synchronized with the rebound of a certain major exchange’s premium index. That index moved from negative for 40 consecutive days to positive. It’s typically used to gauge the direction of US institutional funds. So this isn’t just capital flowing back—it also reflects improving sentiment in the US market. From the holdings data, the total amount of Bitcoin managed by US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds has now reached 1.29 million BTC. Although BTC’s current price is 71.65K, down significantly from last October’s peak, it hasn’t stopped the growth of ETFs. Another detail is that open interest on the CME has been steadily declining, suggesting that this inflow is mainly driven by genuine long-position buying, not basis trading going on. Things are much worse on the XRP side. Recently, it has dropped straight from $1.36 to $1.33, with trading volume also very large, indicating that there really are people selling. The $1.35 level has become a pressure point, and there is also resistance at $1.40 to $1.41 ahead. If the support at $1.33 breaks, the downside risk will be even greater.