Dogecoin Price Prediction: Worst Q4 in Seven Years? $0.17 Support Level Under Threat

In Q4 2025, Dogecoin (DOGE) prices struggled near the critical support level of $0.17, with a cumulative decline of 26%, potentially breaking the record of three consecutive years of Q4 gains from 2022 to 2024. On-chain data shows that whales and long-term holders have been continuously reducing their holdings — addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE sold 4.28 billion coins after October 11, worth approximately $730 million.

Despite a hidden bullish divergence in the weekly RSI and futures open interest on Gate’s perpetual contracts reaching $776 million in shorts, which could trigger a short squeeze rebound, volume indicators like OBV have broken below trendlines, indicating weak buying pressure. If the $0.17 support fails, the next support level could be around $0.15.

Dogecoin Q4 Weak Performance and On-Chain Data Reveal Loss of Holder Confidence

In Q4 2025, DOGE traded within a range of $0.17–$0.22, falling 26% from the early-quarter high, possibly marking its first negative Q4 since 2020. On-chain metrics like “HODL Waves” show short-term holders (1-3 months) decreased from 17.47% in January to 7.24% in November, while long-term holders (1-2 years) shrank from 40.32% in July to 21.87%. This shortening of holding periods indicates more tokens are entering circulation, increasing selling pressure. For example, net exchange inflows from October to November increased by 15% month-over-month, mainly during Asian trading hours.

Whale activity has intensified the bearish trend. Addresses holding 10 million to 100 million DOGE reduced their holdings from 2.461 billion to 2.033 billion coins after October 11, losing about $730 million in value at $0.17. The only positive sign comes from mid-sized whales (100 million to 1 billion DOGE), whose holdings increased from 2.768 billion to 3.238 billion coins, but dispersed whale movements make it difficult to form a unified buying force.

Contradictory Technical Indicators: Hidden Bullish Divergence Coexists with Shrinking Volume

Dogecoin’s weekly chart presents key technical contradictions: on one hand, the price has been supported by the lower boundary of the ascending channel starting April 2025 ($0.17), and a hidden bullish divergence in RSI — the November 10 low was higher than October 6, while RSI lows were lower, often signaling trend continuation. If this pattern plays out, DOGE could rebound by 33% to $0.22 (Fibonacci 0.5 retracement). On the other hand, weekly OBV has broken below its trendline for the first time since early 2025, indicating a lack of genuine buying support, as volume during recent rebounds has decreased by 20%.

Derivatives market data complicates the picture further. Gate.io’s perpetual contracts show that short leverage totals $776 million over the next 30 days, compared to only $152 million in longs, with a short-to-long ratio exceeding 5:1. This extreme bearish positioning could trigger a short squeeze, but if spot trading volume remains weak, the rebound may be limited around the $0.20 resistance zone.

Dogecoin 2025 Q4 On-Chain and Market Key Data

• Support Level: $0.17, corresponding to the lower boundary of the ascending channel and weekly lows
• Whale Holdings Change: Addresses holding 10 million to 100 million DOGE reduced holdings by 4.28 billion coins (approx. $730 million)
• Derivatives Leverage: Gate.io short leverage at $776 million, longs at $152 million
• Historical Q4 Returns: 2022 +14.2%, 2023 +44.2%, 2024 +176.6%

Exchange Dynamics and ETF Outlook: Potential Catalysts and Risks

Market focus shifts to the progress of the Bitwise spot DOGE ETF. Based on the SEC’s automatic approval process, the ETF could be approved by late November 2025. If approved, it would attract institutional capital inflows. Historically, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $12 billion in net inflows in their first month post-approval; even capturing 1% of that scale for DOGE ETF could mean $120 million in buying volume. However, regulatory hurdles remain — the SEC has repeatedly emphasized meme tokens’ speculative nature, and the GENIUS Act does not cover such assets.

Exchange activity shows that margin lending rates for DOGE on major centralized exchanges rose to 8% in November, indicating strong short-selling demand. Meanwhile, Korea’s Upbit exchange’s DOGE/KRW trading pair share increased to 12%, but tighter local regulations could suppress retail enthusiasm. Investors should monitor regional regulatory developments that might impact liquidity.

Meme Coin Cycles and Macroeconomic Influences

DOGE’s weakness in Q4 aligns with typical meme coin lifecycle patterns. Historical data shows these assets perform best late in bull markets (e.g., +176% in Q4 2024), with early corrections during cycle transitions. In 2025, macroeconomic factors have intensified volatility — US interest rates remain high at 5.25%, reducing risk asset appeal, while the DXY dollar index rose to 108, correlating with an 8% decline in total crypto market cap. Additionally, DOGE’s 30-day correlation with Bitcoin has dropped to 0.3, indicating a decoupling from the “digital gold” narrative and a return to community-driven dynamics.

On-chain activity shows DOGE’s daily active addresses averaged 150,000 in Q4 2025, down 10% from Q3, while average transaction size shrank from $20,000 to $8,000, reflecting reduced retail participation. To reverse this trend, a social media event akin to Elon Musk’s 2021 hype could be necessary.

Cryptocurrency Market Liquidity Layers and Dogecoin’s Evolving Role

DOGE’s liquidity structure has undergone a qualitative shift in 2025. It remains heavily reliant on stablecoin trading pairs (USDT/DOGE accounts for 60% of volume), but ETF discussions have brought it into some institutional consideration. Compared to competitors, DOGE’s market cap of $22 billion is lower than Pepe’s $40 billion, but its community engagement (e.g., 50,000 daily Reddit posts) remains strong. Functionally, DOGE is transitioning from a pure payment token to a “community + entertainment” asset — for example, tipping integrations on platforms like X generate over 1 million transactions monthly.

Conclusion

Dogecoin’s struggles in Q4 2025 exemplify the meme coin’s shift from hype to rationality. The $0.17 support level is not only a technical lifeline but also a test of community confidence. If the hidden bullish divergence plays out and an ETF gets approved, a year-end rebound could salvage annual returns; however, continued whale withdrawals and volume decline could see a break below $0.15, leading to deeper corrections. In the evolution of cryptocurrencies, whether DOGE can transcend its meme label depends on its ability to balance entertainment and utility in the future.