The market now expects an 84.9% probability of a rate cut in December. If the current market is speculating on this rate cut expectation, there are still 12 days until the December monetary policy meeting. As long as there are no unfavourable information during this period, it is highly likely that 98000 will not be stopped.

However, the recent rise of Bitcoin still needs to be tested after the US stock market officially opens next week; a more reasonable trajectory might be: first a pullback, then continuing to surge on the expectations of interest rate cuts, reaching 98,000 within 12 days, and then waiting for the rate cut to materialize, as there is still the possibility of a hawkish rate cut (meaning the rate cut strength did not meet expectations), at which point the price may pull back again to build a solid bottom.

Currently, Bitcoin seems to be stabilizing at 90300, and this level can serve as short-term support, but it still needs to undergo more tests of chip exchange to be reliable. On the upside, 94000 is the key resistance for this week, and further ahead is the important trading zone at 98000; on the downside, 90300 can at most be considered a buffer, and to really hold, we need to look at the 87500 range, where the 1-hour MA120 and MA200 are located, providing more effective support.

There's no need to think too much right now, just focus on how long it can stay at the 90300 position! #十二月降息预测