The recent three-day holdings activity in the interest rate futures market has been quite intense. Traders are frantically building positions as if they have discovered a gold mine, betting that the Fed will cut interest rates in December. Statistics from JPMorgan indicate that net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have soared to a 15-year high.

Why the sudden optimism? Mainly because several Fed officials have recently spoken in a dovish tone. New York Fed's Williams mentioned that there is room for rate cuts in the near term, while San Francisco's Daly was even more direct—she feels that a job collapse is more dangerous than runaway inflation. Fed Governor Waller even publicly supported the idea of "preventive rate cuts."

The economic data is indeed not looking good. The consumer confidence index has dropped to a seven-month low, retail growth is weak, and the employment report has also been continuously weakening. Inflation is not as stubborn as imagined, hovering around 2.5% after excluding tariff factors.

But the problem arises - there is no unified opinion within the Fed.

Collins from the Boston Fed believes that holding steady is more reasonable, while Logan from Dallas has a tougher stance, feeling that the previous two rate cuts were completely unnecessary. The more tricky issue is that key economic data for October and November is largely missing due to the government shutdown. This means that the Fed has to make decisions in a situation of incomplete information.

Market predictions of Fed actions have actually not been very accurate. Morgan Stanley has withdrawn its rate cut expectations, and JPMorgan has also stated that the decision in December will be "extremely difficult." Now it's a dilemma: on one hand, the job market is showing red signals, while on the other hand, inflation hasn't been fully suppressed. During this data vacuum, does the Fed dare to take action? That's the real question.