Is this big dump really the bottom? On-chain data will tell.

Recently, the fall in the crypto world has indeed been a bit severe. BTC has plummeted from 126,000 to 87,000, and ETH has dropped from 4,100 to 2,833. Many people are watching their account balances almost turn black. But if we look at history, the situation might not be so pessimistic.

The fall has a pattern to follow

The data from this round of fall is very interesting:

• BTC fall of 31%: Historically, the bear market in 18 years fell by 85%, in 22 years by 75%, with the fall decreasing in rounds.
• ETH fall of 31%: From a technical perspective, after continuous selling pressure, a rebound is usually expected.

According to the traditional four-year cycle theory, the extreme downside potential this time is 50-60%, which means BTC could possibly reach 60-70 thousand in extreme cases. Now that it has already fallen by one-third from 87 thousand, from a probability perspective, the space for further significant decline is narrowing.

Why ETH is Worth Paying Attention to

The price of Ethereum at 2833 has exhibited several interesting technical features:

Technical Analysis: The range of 2750-2850 has historically served as strong support multiple times, and after consecutive declines, the selling pressure typically gets released gradually.

Liquidity: Although Grayscale is dumping, the net inflows of institutional ETFs like BlackRock show that large capital has not fully exited. While retail investors are cutting losses, institutions are quietly accumulating - this has often been a bottom signal in history.

Ecosystem: The Layer 2 and DeFi ecosystems of ETH continue to operate, and the fundamentals have not been damaged.

Short-term Bounce vs Long-term Layout

Possible trends in the near future:

• The extreme fear index in the market usually indicates a demand for emotional recovery.
• BTC may rebound to around 90,000-95,000 in 1-2 weeks.
• Mainstream coins (BNB, SOL, ADA) will rebound.

But beware of the pitfalls:

• Shanzhai coins are prone to the “demon coin” phenomenon during rebounds, with daily increases of 50% or even doubling.
• However, this quick pump is usually a strategy used by big players to absorb retail investors: first pump to attract them in → consolidate to wait for others to follow → continue to dump → close positions when retail investors cut their losses.
• Historically, GAS, TRB and other coins have followed this rhythm.

Operational Logic

Current (Rebound Phase):

• BTC can be cautiously tested for long positions between 87,000 and 89,000, with a stop loss at 85,000.
• ETH is building positions in batches at 2800-2850, the cost-performance ratio at this price is relatively considerable.
• Invest only up to 5% of funds in altcoins, take profits immediately when you earn.

Real Opportunities (after Christmas):

• If BTC rebounds to over 90,000 and then goes down again
• Historically, year-end adjustments by institutions are often accompanied by adjustment pressure.
• The 60,000 to 70,000 range is the position that can be considered for heavy investment.
• If ETH returns to 2500-2600, that would be a “money-giving” level opportunity.

Core Risk Warning: During a market downturn, even if your judgment is accurate, you must control your position. Preserve your principal, as there will always be opportunities; if you get liquidated once, the game is over.

Bottom Line Thinking

This wave of decline is part of the cyclical pattern, not a life-or-death disaster. A drop of 31%, historical support levels validated multiple times, and the undercurrents of institutional funds – all these indicate that the downward space is contracting. However, a rebound does not equal a reversal; the real opportunity for positioning may still need to wait.

The crypto world is always full of opportunities; what's lacking are the people who can survive to wait for that opportunity.