What the Fed's October Minutes Mean for Your Portfolio Today

In just hours, the Federal Reserve will release the October 28-29 FOMC meeting minutes — and this is the document Wall Street has been waiting for since the last 25 bps rate cut to 3.75%-4.00%.

Here’s what matters:

The Real Question Everyone’s Asking

The Fed surprised markets by cutting rates when many expected a pause. Today’s minutes will finally show us the internal debate: Was the committee deeply divided? Who advocated for faster easing? Who pumped the brakes?

Given Powell’s recent comment that another cut is “not a foregone conclusion,” the December rate decision could hinge entirely on what these minutes reveal.

Three Things to Watch

1. The Committee’s Split How fractured was the Fed? If the minutes show hawkish dissenters pushing back hard, that signals rate cuts could stall sooner than markets think. If it was mostly consensus, expect December cut odds to stay elevated.

2. Economic Reality Check Behind closed doors, how worried is the Fed actually about growth? The public narrative is cautiously optimistic, but the minutes often expose raw concerns about moderating growth and slowing job gains. If officials flagged serious economic risks, risk assets could rally on easing expectations. If they sounded confident, that could cool the current equity rally.

3. The QT Plot Twist Starting December 1, the Fed ends quantitative tightening — much earlier than expected. This is a big deal: the Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet, which means fresh liquidity hits markets. But why? What spooked them into stopping QT ahead of schedule? The minutes will tell the full story, and liquidity traders are circling.

The Bottom Line

This isn’t just Fed theater. The minutes can reshape expectations for rate cuts, influence bond yields, and shift risk appetite across equities and crypto. The clock’s at 2:00 PM ET — and that’s when markets reprices everything.