Is the US debt really going to collapse? Don't worry about it, they have even better tricks up their sleeves.

Every day there's a barrage of “US debt default, the dollar is doomed”, but it hasn't happened. Do you know why?

The first reason is the most heartbreaking: the US dollar is the least viable choice globally

Imagine you are the central bank governor, holding hundreds of billions of dollars idly, where would you put it?

• Gold? The vault exploded, and it's really troublesome.
• Euro? Europe has its own pile of bad debts.
• Yen? Japanese government bonds are even scarier than those of the United States.
• Renminbi? Not fully open yet.

After going around in circles, US debt is still the largest, easiest to sell, and relatively the most stable choice. So while central banks around the world criticize the US, they still have to obediently continue to buy in. This is a vicious cycle.

The second trick is the darkest in America - printing money to pay off debts

Owe you 10 billion dollars? Just start the printing press and it's done. This trick is indeed unethical, but it works well. The cost is that inflation is shared globally, and the purchasing power of the dollar shrinks year by year. It's like a restaurant owner who is both the chef and the cashier— theoretically, they can never fail to pay the bill, at most, the portion you get will become smaller and smaller.

That “debt ceiling” farce? Don't take it too seriously

Every year, the two parties argue heatedly, saying they will shut down the government and default on the debt. But this is just like a couple arguing about divorce—most of the time, they will reconcile at critical moments. The market has seen through it all and treats it like a TV drama.

But the risks are indeed accumulating

No matter how high the credit card limit is, there will always be a day when the interest compounds to an alarming level. Many countries are now “keeping a backup plan”:

• China is selling off US Treasuries and increasing its gold holdings.
• Saudi Arabia agrees to settle oil transactions in RMB.
• Brazil and Argentina turn to local currency trading

These actions won't shake the dollar's hegemony in the short term, but like an ant hole in a dam, they are slowly hollowing it out.

When will it finally crash?

In simple terms, it means waiting for the whole world to build their own “lifeboats”, or for the United States to sink the ship itself. We haven't reached that critical point yet—although the dollar ship has leaks everywhere and the crew is still arguing, there aren't any better alternatives at sea. So everyone just keeps complaining while continuing to sit on board, as there's no way to escape in the short term.