#特朗普加密货币政策新方向 $ETH $BTC $LSK

Don't rush to draw conclusions about this round of market trend.

A while ago, when the price dropped below 82268, many people bought the dip. Now everyone is focusing on selling points: 98888? 188888? Or should we continue to hold?

I carefully sorted through the recent market information and discovered an overlooked possibility—the so-called "Bitcoin four-year cycle" is essentially a rhythm game of liquidity. This wave of market movement after the halving is likely to be delayed by the time lag of the Federal Reserve's policies.

Everyone is waiting for the big bull market and altcoin season in the fourth quarter, but the bloodbath in October directly knocked down 39%, shattering expectations. According to traditional understanding, next year should be a bear market year, but could it instead become a turning point for a liquidity explosion?

My judgment is: the probability is very high.

Why might liquidity completely shift next year? Several key factors:

**The institutional牌 is not done yet**
The recent price increase has mainly been driven by spot ETFs and the entry of some institutions, but truly large funds—sovereign funds, pension funds, and national reserves—are still largely observing.

**Interest rate cut cycle + QT termination**
The Federal Reserve may undergo a change in leadership next year, and the pace of interest rate cuts is likely to intensify. Under the pressure of U.S. debt, it may even tacitly allow for a higher level of inflation to dilute the cost of debt.

**The Invisible Easing of SLR Reform**
If you have studied the history of supplementary leverage ratio ( SLR ) reforms, you will find that it has a high correlation with Bitcoin trends. During the last bull market when it surged to 69000, it coincided with the period of SLR relaxation in conjunction with QE. The new round of SLR adjustments may once again release liquidity.

**Massive Demand for Fiscal Expansion**
Take a look at the recently signed "Genesis Project", with an investment scale comparable to the Manhattan Project. This national-level bet will burn money at an astronomical rate, and the possibility of QE resuming is increasing.

From the perspective of the liquidity cycle, a super bull market may not be at its end, but rather just entering the second act. The years 2026-2027 may not necessarily be a traditional bear market; instead, it could be a peak phase of liquidity flooding.

I choose to bet on my own understanding.

Do you think the pattern of breaking the four-year cycle will be broken next year?