Recently, when the market fell below 82268, I bought the dip, and now I've recovered losses. Many people are asking me: "When to sell? 98888 or 188888?"

But I want to share an idea that might disrupt our understanding—maybe there's no need to rush this time.

After integrating the latest information, I found that the so-called "Bitcoin four-year cycle" may just be a manifestation of liquidity. The market after this round of halving is likely to have been artificially delayed by the Federal Reserve's policies.

Everyone is waiting for the big bull market and altcoin season to explode in Q4 of last year, but the wave of bloodbath in October directly caused a 39% fall, shattering expectations. This made me start to think: According to traditional cycle theory, 2025, which should be a "bear market year", might actually become a real explosion year?

I personally tend to believe so. There are four reasons:

First of all, the real big funds are still observing. This round of increase mainly relies on spot ETFs and the participation of some institutions, but sovereign funds and pension funds, these giant funds, have not yet shown any obvious actions.

Secondly, the Federal Reserve may stop tapering and continue to cut interest rates. It is highly likely that there will be a change in leadership next year, and the new monetary policy orientation is very likely to be more accommodative. Given the current high debt pressure in the United States, it makes economic sense to tolerate rising inflation and allow the dollar to moderately depreciate.

The third point is about technology, regarding the SLR( supplementary leverage ratio ) reform. If we look back at historical data, we will find that the adjustment of the SLR policy is highly correlated with Bitcoin's trend. During the last pandemic, the relaxation of the SLR in conjunction with quantitative easing directly led to the historical high of 69,000. If a new round of SLR adjustments is implemented, liquidity may once again be unleashed.

Finally, looking at the "Genesis Plan" just signed by Trump – the investment scale is comparable to the Manhattan Project. The funding requirements for such a national-level strategy are astronomical, and the possibility of QE being restarted is quite high.

From the perspective of the liquidity cycle, 2026-2027 may not be a traditional bear market, but rather a window period of liquidity flooding. The super market may just be starting to lay the groundwork.

Of course, this is just my judgment, and I will bet on my own understanding. What do you all think? Will 2025 break the curse of the four-year cycle?