#BinanceBlockchainWeek The Fed's move this time is significant—officially halting quantitative tightening, and the probability of a rate cut in December has now soared to 91%. Do you remember Powell's remarks at the end of October? At that time, he said a rate cut in December was "not certain", and the market panicked, with the probability only at 35%.
It now seems that the turning point should be the employment data from September. The numbers are indeed not looking good: there were only 119,000 new jobs, which is far worse than the first half of the year; the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, a new high in nearly four years.
My understanding is that the Fed's priorities have changed. Previously, they were fixated on inflation, but now they are starting to worry about employment issues. Once inflationary pressures really ease, the pace of interest rate cuts may be faster than expected. For the market in 2026, this is perhaps the most anticipated signal.
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DAOTruant
· 11h ago
Powell turned around too quickly this time, from "not necessarily" to 91%, the market is just so realistic... the employment data was terrible and he got scared directly haha
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fren.eth
· 12h ago
Wow, Powell turned around too quickly, from "not necessarily cutting interest rates" to a 91% probability, the market really has been messed up.
The employment data is so bad that the Fed is finally scared... Are our good days coming?
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WalletWhisperer
· 12h ago
Powell turned around too quickly, from "not necessarily" to 91%, this contrast is a bit extreme... Once the employment data is bad, they start to hesitate, the Fed really adjusts its stance based on the people. We need to buy the dip well in 2026, it feels like it's about to da moon.
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LiquidityOracle
· 12h ago
Powell turned around pretty quickly, just two months ago he was still very tough, and now he's been slapped in the face by the employment data. The 91% probability shows that the market has long seen through it, and the Fed is just pretending to be data-driven. The key is that once the rate cut cycle starts, it might really take off in 2026, but we also have to be careful not to have another inflation resurgence...
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GateUser-e87b21ee
· 12h ago
Damn, Powell's speed of change is incredible; just a moment ago he said "not certain" and now it's 91%... Didn't expect the unemployment data to be this bad, the Fed has really backed down this time.
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UncommonNPC
· 12h ago
Haha, Powell really turned around quickly this time, from "rate cuts are not certain" to now 91%. This is how the market plays... To put it bluntly, it's just that the employment data scared them, and the Fed has started to panic.
#BinanceBlockchainWeek The Fed's move this time is significant—officially halting quantitative tightening, and the probability of a rate cut in December has now soared to 91%. Do you remember Powell's remarks at the end of October? At that time, he said a rate cut in December was "not certain", and the market panicked, with the probability only at 35%.
It now seems that the turning point should be the employment data from September. The numbers are indeed not looking good: there were only 119,000 new jobs, which is far worse than the first half of the year; the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, a new high in nearly four years.
My understanding is that the Fed's priorities have changed. Previously, they were fixated on inflation, but now they are starting to worry about employment issues. Once inflationary pressures really ease, the pace of interest rate cuts may be faster than expected. For the market in 2026, this is perhaps the most anticipated signal.
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