Judging from the recent data trends and sentiment on social platforms, there's an interesting phenomenon:

In this round of BTC and ETH rebounds, 90% of retail investors are just watching from the sidelines and haven't gotten on board at all.

What’s even more extreme is that the rest not only missed out, but are actually doing the opposite—going all-in on short positions with leverage. Why say it's nine times the number of onlookers? Because leverage amplifies the effect.

If this is true, based on the usual market playbook of the past few years, the most likely script next is: first, liquidate the shorts and force them to close their positions in tears; then, the sidelined crowd gets envious and FOMO in at higher prices; at this point, the market hits a collective frenzy and buzzwords like “alt season is here” start flying everywhere. Only then is the cycle complete.

Right now? We're still far from that point.

The painful days for the shorts have just begun. What's likely ahead for them is: the market rises 20%, then pulls back 5%, and everyone starts celebrating.