3.18 Afternoon Market Analysis

From the 15-minute chart perspective, after rallying to 74850, the price quickly pulled back and is currently under pressure near 74204.9 (Bollinger middle band).
Bollinger upper band at 74528.1 forms short-term strong resistance, while lower band at 73880.7 provides support. Price continues to trade below the middle band. Moving averages are turning downward, short-term bearish momentum dominates, and rebound strength is weak.

Fed Decision Expectations Weighing: Although tonight's FOMC meeting is likely to maintain rates unchanged, the dot plot and Powell's remarks are core risk points. Market expectations for 2026 rate cuts have cooled significantly, and the judgment that "higher rates will persist longer" will tighten liquidity, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.

Bull Profit-Taking: After yesterday's rally to 75800, the uptrend collapsed, with obvious signs of institutional profit-taking in the short term. Combined with the Fear and Greed Index in the extreme fear zone, bulls lack momentum to chase higher prices, and selling pressure at high levels continues to release.

Geopolitical and Compliance Dual Disturbances: Middle East escalation pushes up stagflation risks, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance; meanwhile, global crypto regulation tightens (South Korea fines exchanges heavily, Hong Kong stablecoin licenses are limited), making it difficult for market risk appetite to recover.

Trading Recommendations

Rally to 74500 – 75000 zone for short positions, first target 73200, after breakdown watch 72700#伊朗确认拉里贾尼遇害 $BTC $ETH