Retail fear index has been extremely fearful for 38 consecutive days, second only to the 42-day period during the FTX collapse.



However, whales have quietly accumulated 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, approximately $18.7 billion. The number of addresses holding over 100 BTC just hit an all-time high of 20,031. Exchange BTC reserves simultaneously hit a 7-year low.

Looking back at history, during COVID the fear index reached 8, and 13 months later BTC surged 1400%. During the FTX collapse, the index hit 10, and it rose 158% in 12 months. When the fear index drops below 15, the probability of positive returns in the subsequent 30 and 90 days is approximately 80%.

I checked my positions, then quietly closed the page. #美联储利率决议
BTC-4.45%
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