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Bitcoin has crashed! Time for a rebound? Where can we short again? Let's take a look.
1. The recent decline is no accident. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin has hit the high-pressure line, encountering resistance along the trendline and falling very orderly. This decline will likely first come to the lower edge of the consolidation zone. Once it breaks through, the consequences will be unimaginable! Will it break through?
2. I think the probability is quite high, because the previous descending flag broke through right after the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision. Additionally, Bitcoin has fallen for 1-2 weeks after each of the previous 4 rate decisions. This time doesn't look optimistic.
3. However, our operations have always prioritized stability. I've already taken profits on some short positions, locking in gains. So even if there's a rebound, we can handle it with ease and short at higher prices.
4. In the short term, around 69,500 is the previous consolidation zone with some support. I want to see if we can get a significant rebound here before shorting. The more ideal positions are around 71,800 and 73,000.
5. The end point of this decline will likely come to around 68,000 near the lower edge of the ascending trendline. However, this is just a rough area—this trendline isn't as precise as a ruler, which is why I took profits on some positions first.
6. Over the past two weeks, we shorted 3 times around 74,000, all successfully. We also took profits at relatively low points during the decline, not aggressively betting on a definite break. This is why we still have capital to respond despite so many bounces—this is position management.
7. Of course, I'm bearish long-term; it's only a matter of time before breaking through the previous low of 60,000. So I still hold 30% of short positions betting on bigger profits. This capital looks substantial, but it's actually profits from my previous trades. I'm using profits to gamble for larger gains; the average price is high, zero fear at all, real-time operations~$BTC