Trump's 48-hour ultimatum is really more for the voters than for Iran. If oil actually hit $100, it would basically be political suicide for the U.S. president—he knows this better than anyone.

But here's the thing: Iran's mindset has already shifted. After years of repeated sanctions, negotiations, and torn agreements, they've already accepted one reality: there's no long-term credibility in dealing with America. So getting them to sit down for genuine negotiations this time is much harder than before. They're more inclined to "return the favor" first, then talk about anything else.

That said, a lot of people are thinking about this too linearly. They keep saying Iran will jack up oil prices to hammer the U.S. stock market—that logic is a bit too idealistic. America isn't the pure oil-import-dependent country it used to be. Higher oil prices would definitely squeeze consumption, but at the same time they're pumping blood into America's own energy sector. Sure, there'd be shocks, but not enough to collapse the markets outright.

What matters isn't really "will there be conflict or not"—it's how far it'll escalate.

A guy like Trump doesn't need to fight a real major war. He just needs markets and voters to feel that he's tough, he's willing to act, but things haven't spiraled out of control.

So the more realistic script is probably the same old playbook:

Small-scale moves, proxy friction, localized escalation, keep talking harsh rhetoric, but keep the tempo in that zone of "tense but not explosive."

Iran's the same way—they probably won't go all-in either. Actually blocking shipping lanes or staging major attacks on energy infrastructure would pull themselves under too. More likely they'll drag it out, grind bit by bit, keep the situation hanging in limbo.

Bottom line: this isn't a game where one side crushes the other. It's a game of who controls the rhythm better.

So your final question—does Trump have the guts to risk the U.S. stock market crashing by bombing power plants?

The more realistic answer is: he'll make moves that *look* gutsy, but he won't actually crater the market with them.

The show goes on, but the house doesn't get wrecked.