Gate Research Institute: The easing of interest rate expectations has triggered a market correction ｜ Aave Horizon RWA significantly expands in scale

Summary

1. Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $107,500 and $116,388 over the past week, and its consolidation phase is expected to be prolonged.
2. Mastercard plans to spend $2 billion to acquire the cryptocurrency infrastructure company Zerohash.
3. The pace of interest rate cuts may slow down, and traders have lowered their bets on a rate cut in December.
4. Aave Horizon RWA market size exceeds 425 million USD.
5. Bitwise's Solana ETF trading volume exceeded $72 million on the second day.
6. KALSHI's monthly trading volume has reached a historical high, exceeding 4 billion dollars.

Market Interpretation

Market Commentary

• BTC Market —— In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has been oscillating narrowly around MA5 and MA10. Affected by frustrations over interest rate cut expectations, the price briefly dipped to $109,216, before quickly recovering to above $110,000. Market volatility has caused the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 12 hours to reach $532 million, with long position liquidations amounting to $426 million, and Bitcoin's single liquidation approximately $224 million. Overall, Bitcoin is still in a neutral to bullish consolidation phase, with prices running between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and its consolidation phase is expected to extend. In the short term, $116,000 remains a key resistance level; if broken, it is expected to continue the rebound trend; while the $109,000 area is an important support range for the bullish structure to hold.
• ETH Market - In the past 24 hours, Ethereum has oscillated and weakened within the range of $3,839 to $4,037. The 4-hour chart shows that ETH has fallen below the MA5, MA10, and MA30 moving averages, with the price located at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating significant short-term pressure. On the daily level, the moving average golden cross range is gradually narrowing, and ETH is still hovering below the 100-day moving average, which constitutes the current main resistance. If the price can break through and stabilize above $4,000, it will likely retest the supply zone at $4,200; conversely, if it fails to break the upward trend line, it may indicate a further weakening in the short term. Looking downward, the $3,500 area remains a key support level.
• Altcoins —— This week, mainstream altcoins are generally on a downward trend, with the altcoin seasonal index at 32, showing a slight rebound compared to last week, but overall market sentiment remains bearish.
• Stablecoin - The total market capitalization of stablecoins is currently $307.9 billion, reaching a new high, with overall scale steadily increasing.
• Gas Fee —— The Gas fee on the Ethereum network has fallen from a peak average of 15.9 Gwei on October 10, and as of October 30, the average Gas fee for that day was 0.117 Gwei.

Popular Token

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has continued to decline under the influence of macroeconomic news, with mainstream coins generally falling. BTC dropped by 1.70%, ETH fell by 1.58%, SOL remained flat, and XRP decreased by 1.90%. BNB became one of the few mainstream coins to rise, increasing by about 1.42%, showing relatively strong performance. Additionally, despite most assets entering a short-term adjustment phase, RZTO, SAPIEN, and LUMIA tokens performed brightly, and the reasons for the rise of each token will be analyzed one by one below.

RZTO RZTO (+231.55%, Circulating Market Cap 19.338 million USD)

According to Gate's market data, the RZTO token is currently priced at $0.004340, with a 24-hour increase of 231.55%, continuing a strong increase of 386% over the past week, outperforming the overall crypto market, which has seen a decline of 0.9%. RZTO is an innovative project focused on the integration of AI and Web3 technologies, aiming to enhance blockchain efficiency and user experience through smart trading, ZK technology, and decentralized applications. The core goal of the project is to build the next-generation DeFi infrastructure that combines privacy, security, and intelligence.

The core driving factors of the upward trend mainly come from the listing of coins on exchanges and the popularity on social media. Firstly, RZTO was listed on centralized exchanges on October 18 and opened for withdrawals on October 19, releasing new liquidity and buying momentum in a short period, with the daily trading volume soaring by 246% to 1.66 million USD, indicating a rapid influx of market funds. Secondly, RZTO.IO released a vague tweet on October 26 that sparked heated discussions in the community and market speculation, with likes exceeding 1,000, further amplifying retail sentiment and short-term speculation expectations. Overall, this round of price increase is driven by both the “listing effect” and “social momentum,” but the fundamental support is limited.

SAPIEN Sapien (+19.84%, Market Cap 48.9325 Million USD)

According to the market data from Gate, the SAPIEN token is currently priced at $0.1966, with a 24-hour increase of 19.84%, and a market capitalization growth of $6.1 million compared to yesterday. Sapien is a decentralized data Foundry aimed at transforming collective human knowledge into enterprise-level AI training data. Sapien focuses on high-quality, vertical domain AI training data, including 3D/4D data annotation, expert-led data collection, and customized dataset services for industry applications. Its open market also offers a selection of domain-specific datasets to support deep learning and innovation in AI models.

Recently, Sapien announced the completion of a $10.5 million seed round of financing on October 30, 2024, led by the well-known institution Variant. This round of financing will mainly be used to expand the global data collection network and optimize platform infrastructure, further strengthening its core competitiveness in the decentralized data and AI training ecosystem. With a decentralized model and a large-scale human participation mechanism, Sapien is gradually becoming a key infrastructure that connects AI models with real-world data.

LUMIA Lumia (+22.97%, circulating market cap $12.09 million)

According to Gate market data, the LUMIA token is currently priced at $0.1622, with a 24-hour increase of 22.97%. Lumia is a Web3 protocol focused on building cross-chain liquidity and asset tokenization infrastructure, dedicated to breaking down the barriers of multi-chain asset interaction, providing users and institutions with an efficient and secure cross-chain trading experience. The project is gradually becoming an important infrastructure participant in the DeFi and RWA fields through technological innovation and ecological cooperation.

Recently, the price of Lumia tokens has risen significantly, mainly driven by three positive factors. First, on October 11, Lumia announced a strategic partnership with blockchain infrastructure giant Alchemy to provide institutional-grade infrastructure support for its network, enhancing system stability and security. Second, on October 18, Lumia joined forces with Avail to promote a tokenization solution for physical assets, leveraging the rapidly warming narrative of RWA, which has led to increased market attention. Finally, on October 24, the project launched an Omnichain Liquidity Layer, significantly improving cross-chain asset liquidity and trading experience. This series of actions reflects Lumia's proactive progress in technology implementation and ecological expansion, combined with the market's warming sentiment towards the liquidity infrastructure sector, collectively driving the continuous rise of its token price.

Highlight Data

Mastercard plans to invest $2 billion to acquire the crypto infrastructure company Zerohash.

Global payment giant Mastercard is in acquisition talks with crypto infrastructure company ZeroHash, with a deal expected to be worth up to $2 billion. This acquisition will further extend Mastercard's crypto business into the stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure space.

ZeroHash was founded in 2017, focusing on providing infrastructure for stablecoin issuance, fiat-crypto exchange, custody, and staking services, with clients including major banks and trading platforms. The impact of this transaction is broad; first, it signifies the importance that traditional payment systems place on stablecoins and blockchain settlement technology, which is expected to accelerate the entry of traditional enterprises into the crypto world. Second, for retail and institutional users, if Mastercard can integrate ZeroHash's technology, it is expected to facilitate fiat-crypto exchanges in a more convenient, transparent, and compliant manner. Finally, from an industry perspective, this move may trigger more payment giants and financial institutions to accelerate their layout of crypto infrastructure, promoting the entire ecosystem to merge with mainstream finance.

Grayscale Solana spot ETF is listed, and the market demand for Solana exposure products is rising.

On October 29, Grayscale Solana Trust ETF (ticker GSOL) converted from a trust to an ETF and was officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the second listed Solana spot ETF after Bitwise.

On its first day of listing, GSOL had a net inflow of 1.4 million USD, a trading volume of 4.86 million USD, and a total net asset value of 103 million USD. The Grayscale Solana Trust ETF currently only supports cash subscriptions and redemptions, with the management fee rate reduced from 2.50% during the trust period to 0.35%. It supports Solana to provide additional yield through staking, with 23% of the staking yield attributed to Grayscale, custodians, and staking providers, while the remaining 77% of the yield is included in the ETF assets. Overall, the listing of the ETF provides a regulated channel for institutions and retail investors to gain exposure to SOL through securities accounts, bypassing barriers such as directly buying coins and self-custody wallets. Meanwhile, the integration of crypto asset securitization with traditional financial products enhances the degree of participation from more mainstream financial institutions, pension funds, or larger scale capital entering the crypto market.

The pace of interest rate cuts may slow down, and traders are adjusting their bets on a rate cut in December.

After the highly anticipated monetary policy meeting, the market did not see a definitive expectation for a rate cut in December. The meeting indicated that if no new information is obtained and the economic conditions appear unchanged, there would be reason to slow down the pace of rate cuts. Moreover, compared to the last two policy meetings where rate cuts were implemented, some officials hope to take a wait-and-see approach. Now, an increasing number of officials believe that the next rate cut should at least wait for one cycle.

As a result, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $109,949 after the meeting, with a 24-hour decline of 4.17%. Meanwhile, the meeting also led to a total liquidation of $532 million across the network over 12 hours, with long positions accounting for $426 million. Inflation Insights analyst Omair Sharif believes that the government shutdown and the lack of relevant official economic data may hinder plans for a third consecutive rate cut in December. If the meeting on December 10 does not reflect official data on economic activity for October and November, it may be difficult for officials to reach a consensus on another rate cut, especially considering the internal divisions within the FOMC indicated by the September dot plot. It is worth mentioning that traders have reduced their bets on a rate cut in December; according to CME statistics, the probability of a 25 bp rate cut is currently only 67.8%, whereas just a day earlier, traders believed there was a 90.5% chance of a 50 bp cut.

This Week's Focus

Aave Horizon RWA market size exceeds 425 million USD

The Horizon RWA market launched by Aave has recently achieved significant expansion, with a total scale surpassing 425 million USD, making it one of the most promising sectors for growth in real-world assets (RWA) within the DeFi space. This growth is largely attributed to the Crypto Carry Fund (USCC) under Superstate Inc., which has seen its capital scale expand to over 180 million USD. The current total lending in the market exceeds 110 million USD, with RLUSD loans amounting to approximately 64 million USD, GHO loans around 29 million USD, and USDC loans about 16 million USD. In terms of yield strategies, to attract more liquidity, the borrowing rate for RLUSD is maintained below 3%, while the borrowing rates for GHO and USDC are slightly above 4%, with USDC also receiving additional yield support from Merkl platform incentives.

The rapid growth of Aave Horizon highlights that RWA assets are becoming the core source of new capital influx in DeFi. By introducing regulated asset managers like Superstate, Horizon has achieved a breakthrough in balancing compliance and returns, providing a low-risk and stable return entry point for institutional capital. The current interest rate strategies of RLUSD and GHO demonstrate Aave's flexibility in actively guiding fund structures and interest rate spreads. With more RWA funds coming online, Aave Horizon is expected to become the most representative on-chain fusion model of “yield-generating DeFi + real assets,” accelerating the DeFi market's shift from purely crypto-collateralized to real asset-driven.

Bitwise's Solana ETF saw its trading volume exceed $72 million on the second day.

The Bitwise Solana Spot Staking ETF (BSOL) saw its trading volume exceed $72.4 million on its second day of listing, an increase from the first day's $56 million, continuing to set a “new annual ETF trading record” established on its debut. In contrast, other newly launched crypto ETFs during the same period, such as the Canary Litecoin ETF (LTCC) and the Canary HBAR ETF (HBR), had trading volumes of approximately $8 million and $1 million, respectively. Meanwhile, Grayscale also launched its own Solana Staking ETF (GSOL), which had a trading volume of around $4 million on its first day, while the REX Osprey Solana ETF (SSK) recorded about $18 million in inflows.

Bitwise's BSOL continues to show strong performance, demonstrating investors' strong interest in the Solana ecosystem and staking yield assets, as well as reflecting the market's growing recognition of “non-Bitcoin crypto asset ETFs.” The high liquidity of BSOL not only indicates that traditional funds are accelerating their allocation to Solana, but it may also attract more mainstream institutions to pay attention to on-chain yield assets.

KALSHI's monthly trading volume hits a new all-time high, surpassing 4 billion USD.

On October 30, the prediction market platform Kalshi achieved a historic milestone—its trading volume for the month exceeded $4 billion, setting a new record since the platform's inception. As macroeconomic uncertainty rises, trading in prediction contracts related to political events, inflation data, and Federal Reserve policies has significantly increased on Kalshi, driving overall trading volume to continue to rise.

Kalshi's trading volume has reached a new high, marking the prediction market's acceleration towards becoming a mainstream intersection of finance and public sentiment. Its mechanism operating within a compliant framework allows institutional and individual investors to legally bet on future events, providing a new dimension for price discovery in the traditional derivatives market. The current trading enthusiasm not only reflects investors' heightened sensitivity to macro events but also indicates that the market space for event-driven financial products is rapidly opening up. With the integration of AI, data analytics, and on-chain oracles, prediction markets are expected to become a key bridge connecting information, speculation, and decision-making efficiency.

Financing Weekly Report

According to data from RootData, during the period from October 24 to October 30, 2025, a total of 14 cryptocurrency and related projects announced the completion of financing or mergers and acquisitions, covering multiple sectors such as payment networks, stablecoins, AI, and infrastructure. Below is a brief introduction to the projects with the largest financing scale this week:

ZAR

Announced the completion of a $12.9 million financing on October 28, led by a16z.

ZAR is a digital dollar wallet that allows users to securely and conveniently exchange cash for digital currency at nearby merchants through the app. Its accompanying ZAR debit card is accepted at all locations that accept Visa payments, providing users with a seamless digital payment experience.

StraitsX

Announced on October 28th, the completion of a $10 million financing, which will be used to build a stablecoin infrastructure that combines with fiat payment networks and the Web3 ecosystem.

StraitsX is a leading digital asset payment infrastructure provider in Southeast Asia, offering account services for individuals and businesses for fund transfers, storage, and connection to digital asset platforms. Its corporate accounts support integration into various digital payment channels through B2B APIs. StraitsX also issues stablecoins XSGD pegged to SGD and XIDR pegged to the Indonesian Rupiah, providing a compliant and stable value carrier for the regional digital economy.

Standard Economics

Announced the completion of a $9 million seed round financing on October 28, led by Paradigm.

Standard Economics is a startup focused on providing cross-border payment solutions for the unbanked population, aiming to eliminate the complexity and high costs of international remittances through stablecoin technology, helping users easily access global currencies such as the US dollar.

Focus Next Week

Token Unlock

According to Tokenomist data, the market will experience significant token unlocks over the next 7 days (2025.10.31 - 2025.11.06). The top 3 situations before the unlock are as follows:

• SUI will unlock tokens worth approximately $111 million in the next 7 days, accounting for 1.2% of the circulating supply.
• ENA will unlock approximately $94.19 million in the next 7 days, accounting for 3.0% of the circulating supply.
• EIGEN will unlock approximately $40.5 million worth of tokens in the next 7 days, accounting for 9.5% of the circulating supply. <br> Reference Source

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• Coingecoko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap
• Grayscale, https://etfs.grayscale.com/gsol
• The Block, https://www.theblock.co/post/376840/mastercard-acquire-crypto-infrastructure-startup-zerohash-deal-worth-2-billion-fortune
• CME, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
• X, https://x.com/AliTslm/status/1983118019585851662
• The Block, https://www.theblock.co/post/376839/huge-number-bitwise-solana-etf-crosses-70-million-volume-second-day
• X, https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1983591272766959644
• Rootdata, https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising
• Tokenomist, https://tokenomist.ai/

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