On June 23, Jin10 reported that Goldman Sachs stated that while it still believes there will be no significant disruptions in oil and gas supply, the downside risks to supply and the upside risks to price forecasts have risen. The PolyMarket prediction market now suggests that there is a high likelihood of Iran disrupting the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. If Iran's oil supply were to decrease by 1.75 million barrels per day, Brent crude oil prices are expected to rise to a peak of around $90 per barrel. If oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz decreases by 50% within a month and continues to decrease by 10% over the following 11 months, Brent oil prices are expected to briefly spike to a peak of around $110 per barrel. The European natural gas (TTF) and liquefied natural gas markets will also reflect the possibility of major supply disruptions. TTF prices are expected to rise to nearly €74 per megawatt hour.

European natural gas prices have rebounded somewhat, but are still influenced by market risk aversion. The Dutch TTF gas contract has fallen to €35.95, down 15% for the week. Global trade tensions may suppress energy demand, putting pressure on the commodities market. The trade war could increase European liquefied natural gas imports, helping to replenish reserves and lower prices.

European natural gas prices have fallen to their lowest in four weeks, with Dutch TTF gas futures dropping below 40 euros per megawatt hour. The global natural gas market is dragged down by crude oil, with expectations of increased supply. The EU's inventory levels are low, facing pressure from the gas storage season. The US has lifted supply restrictions, but demand may be affected, and energy prices could continue to decline.

Jin10 reported on April 3 that due to intensified competition among terminals to accommodate extra cargo, the cost of shipping a batch of liquefied natural gas to Europe is decreasing. Data from Spark Commodities Pte Ltd. shows that in recent weeks, the discount on liquefied natural gas delivery prices in Northwest Europe relative to the European benchmark Dutch TTF gas has widened. The data indicates that the price difference last week reached as high as -71.5 cents. Vessels tracking data shows that imports in Western Europe reached the highest level since 2017 in March, and Europe is preparing to replenish depleted stocks in the summer.

Mitsubishi UFJ analysts pointed out that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine peace protocol on the natural gas market will exceed that of other commodities, increasing the price of Russian natural gas delivered to Europe and filling up European reserves. TTF prices are expected to come under pressure and could fall below 30 euros.

Jinshi data, December 18 news, European natural gas prices fell by 3% intraday, possibly affected by profit-taking. The previous trading day, due to the EU's disinterest in continuing to transport Russian natural gas through Ukraine, the European natural gas prices surged significantly. The Dutch TTF index recorded the largest intraday increase in a month on Tuesday, closing at 42.07 euros per megawatt-hour. A significant study released by the United States on the economic and environmental impact of natural gas exports also supported prices, complicating the plans of the elected US President Trump.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect that European natural gas prices will receive support in the short term, but with the increase in supply of liquefied natural gas from the United States, prices may slightly decrease by 2025. The EU's filling level is currently below 88%, which is 10 percentage points lower than a year ago. The introduction of new liquefied terminals in the United States next year may alleviate the price pressure. TTF prices fell 1.4% in overnight trading in Europe.

Jinshi data news on November 25th, European natural gas prices pump, earlier Australian Pluto liquefied natural gas facilities closed, and market expectations due to the drop in temperature, demand will increase. The benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures price pumped 2.3% to 48.12 euros per megawatt-hour, with an increase of more than 10% this month. At a time when the European Union is accelerating the consumption of natural gas reserves and the tension between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, this move has intensified market supply concerns. In addition, the agreement between Russia and Ukraine to supply natural gas to Europe is due to expire at the end of this year, and traders are closely following relevant information.

Recently, the price of natural gas in Europe has been continuously rising, with the contract price of Dutch TTF natural gas rising by over 19%, hitting a new high for the year. Concerns about Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and the escalation of tensions disrupting natural gas supply, coupled with the EU's natural gas storage levels being below the five-year average, have led investors to hold an optimistic view of the future performance of natural gas.

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The price of natural gas in Europe has fallen due to reduced supply issues and sufficient storage levels, and the liquefied natural gas in the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas has resumed transportation. The EU's natural gas reserves are already 83.37% full, but the Asian market has strong demand for LNGSpot, leading to higher LNG prices. The investment fund has increased its net long position in TTF natural gas to 131 terawatt-hours, with good storage conditions in Europe but speculators still holding a large number of positions.

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that the global liquefied natural gas market will become tighter due to reduced supply from the United States and increased demand from Egypt. It is expected that by January 2025, the remaining pipeline flow of Russia through Ukraine will drop to zero, and the Dutch TTF natural gas benchmark price will be at a mid-to-low level of 30 euros/MWh next year. By the winter of 2024-2025, natural gas reserves in northwest Europe will reach 95%. If the temperature is lower than the average level, Europe is prone to natural gas price pump, and TTF price may rise to the level of 65-85 euros/MWh.