Glassnode: If the market continues to weaken, it will become a key warning signal for structural deterioration. The recent pullback is mainly due to localized deleveraging rather than large-scale capital withdrawal.

On October 15, Glassnode posted on social media that under the dual impact of macroeconomic pressures and the liquidation of $19 billion in futures contracts, Bitcoin's upward momentum to $126,000 has reversed. With the slowdown of ETF fund inflows and a surge in market volatility, this historic round of leverage clearing is pushing the market into a reset phase. Analysts indicate that this pullback is particularly worth noting — it is the third time since the end of August that the price has fallen below the 0.95 percentile price model ($117,100). This price level concentrated over 5% of the circulating supply (mainly held by top buyers), and falling below it has resulted in unrealized losses. The current price has retreated to the range of $108,400 to $117,100, moving away from the previous frenzy phase. If it fails to reclaim the $117,100 level, the market may dip to the lower end of the range. Historical data shows that losing this area often triggers medium to long-term adjustments; if it stays below $108,400, it will become a critical warning signal for structural weakening. Long-term holders (LTH) since July 2025 have continued to reduce their holdings, further constraining upward momentum. During this period, the LTH supply decreased by about 300,000 BTC, indicating that mature investors are steadily locking in profits. This ongoing selling pressure highlights the risk of demand exhaustion, and the market may enter a consolidation phase. If the reduction continues without new demand following suit, periodic pullbacks or localized panic selling may occur before restoring balance. Notably, during this liquidation wave, spot trading volume surged, reaching a yearly peak. Monitoring the cumulative trading volume Delta divergence (CVDB) reveals that CEX platforms are facing significant active selling pressure, while CEX shows net buying, indicating that institutional investors are absorbing sell orders on American trading platforms. Overall, the CVDB only shows a mild net selling tendency, much weaker than the spot panic selling at the end of February 2025. This suggests that the recent pullback primarily stems from localized deleveraging rather than large-scale capital withdrawal.