Citigroup: For every $1 billion net outflow from Bitcoin ETF, the coin price will fall by about 3.4%.

On November 24, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are experiencing the most severe monthly outflow since their inception nearly two years ago, adding greater pressure to an already weak crypto market. Bloomberg data shows that so far in November, investors have withdrawn $3.5 billion from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs, nearly matching the record high monthly outflow of $3.6 billion set in February. BlackRock's Bitcoin fund IBIT accounts for about 60% of the total assets in this category, with the fund recording $2.2 billion in redemptions in November. If there is no large-scale capital inflow in the coming days, it will set its worst monthly performance. Citigroup's research quantified this phenomenon: for every $1 billion (net) outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, the price drops by about 3.4%, and vice versa. Citigroup analyst Alex Saunders set a pessimistic year-end target of $82,000 (assuming zero capital inflow). The actual outflow has reached several billion dollars, indicating further downside potential. Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Rebecca Sin pointed out, 'As the market continues to decline and volatility increases, especially in conjunction with the current trend of gold, outflows may persist.' She also revealed that some of the withdrawals are due to hedge funds unwinding a popular strategy known as 'basis trading'—this strategy profits by capturing the price differences between the spot and futures markets. Some institutions are also using ETFs to profit from or hedge against short positions in crypto asset derivatives.