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Why hasn't the anticipated rally occurred after the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passes the "Clarity Act"?

Today, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee approved the "Clarity Act" with a vote of 15 to 9. This is the largest bill in cryptocurrency history and could serve as a powerful trigger for the upcoming bull market. The bill will proceed to a full Senate vote, likely merging with an earlier version. To pass in the Senate, the bill requires 60 votes; today, two Democratic senators voted in favor during the committee vote. If it receives 60 votes, it will be sent to the House of Representatives, which has already approved the earlier version and is expected to approve this version as well. The bill ultimately needs the president's signature and regulatory implementation, a process expected to take 1-2 years, but it will bring innovation and liquidity to the market. The bill explicitly classifies certain assets as commodities or securities, which is positive for most assets becoming digital commodities rather than securities. DeFi will become safer, with necessary protections written into law, opening the door for more developers and institutions to explore DeFi use cases.

Last night, many bulls, including Little God of Wealth, were eagerly awaiting the passage of the "CLARITY Act," expecting a big rally, with some analysts even predicting Bitcoin breaking through 83,000 and a return to a bull market. Surprisingly, although the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee, Bitcoin did not reach 83,000. After rebounding to around 82,000, it encountered resistance and fell back, closing this morning at $80,900. So why didn't the market break upward as expected?

1. The "big event" effect of the "shoe dropping" on positive news realization

Passing the "CLARITY Act" in the Senate Banking Committee is just a key step in the legislative process. It still needs a full Senate vote, coordination with the House version, and presidential signing, among other steps. Currently, there are clear partisan differences, and subsequent progress is uncertain. The market had already partially priced in regulatory positive expectations. Once the "shoe drops," short-term speculative enthusiasm diminishes, and profit-taking increases, leading to selling pressure around 82,000.

2. Technical resistance at a critical level (bull market not back yet)

83,000 is a resistance level where Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through before, and it also coincides with the 200-day moving average. This area is crowded with trapped positions and short positions. When the price rebounds to this zone, the rebound force from shorts and the need to cover trapped positions are released simultaneously, creating strong resistance that makes it difficult for Bitcoin to break through.

3. Capital flow and market sentiment shifts

- Cautious institutional funds: Although whales have been accumulating at lows, ETF fund outflows earlier indicate some institutional funds remain cautious. There are differing views on the market trend after regulatory positives, and no large-scale influx of funds has driven the rally.

- Divergence in retail investor sentiment: The sharp drop below 79,000 shook retail confidence. When the price rebounded to 82,000, some trapped retail investors hurried to exit, while those who missed the move hesitated to buy at high levels. This market sentiment divergence also limited further upward movement.

4. Potential macroeconomic impacts

Although the U.S. April CPI data was below expectations, inflation pressures have not been fully eliminated. Market expectations for rate cuts have increased but lack consensus. The dollar index has declined somewhat but has not weakened significantly. Bitcoin's role as "digital gold" against inflation has not been fully demonstrated, and macro-level support remains insufficient.