BigDevilV

A bit unexpected—the crypto market has come alive… I can spend more time trading crypto.

All at once, as if a spring breeze swept in overnight, pear blossoms bloom on thousands upon thousands of trees.
It was caught up for a month.
After just one night, it was released and turned into profit.
Happiness came too quickly—there wasn’t even time to buy enough yet.

Hynix’s second-quarter revenue and profit hit record highs, but missed expectations, and US stocks fell in pre-market trading. But don’t panic yet—bad news landing is good news: $1000 and $130 prices aren’t expensive; after a 50% drop, you can buy the dip, and holding longer should always make money. In this round of the market, I bought the dip from -30% and kept buying down to -50%, and it now looks somewhat foolish, but I think getting back to break-even and making profits shouldn’t be a big issue.

Changxin Technology trivia:
1. The company was established only ten years ago, yet it has surpassed the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to become the A-share company with the highest market capitalization;
2. Hefei state-owned assets have cumulatively held 33.1% of the shares, with a market value exceeding 1 trillion;
3. More than 6,000 employees hold original shares at a cost of between 0.1 and 1 yuan. Most are allocated 200k shares, with a three-year lock-up period, and employees are not allowed to participate in secondary-market subscriptions and trading.

Korean stocks have risen again, triggering an upside trading halt. If you bought SK hynix for under $1,200, you can now secretly celebrate!

The stock price of the storage sector has fallen 40%-50%, and you buy the dip without leverage.
If the bull market continues, your assets will double.
If a bear market begins, your assets will be cut in half.
Risk-reward is 2:1, with a win rate of 60%-70%.
So the question is: do you dare to buy the dip?

The China Securities Association (CSIA) and leading brokerages conducted a sampling survey, which showed that the proportion of active users on the A-share market who incur losses is as high as 79%-82%. Retail investors’ average return in the first half of the year was -23.6%, with an average unrealized loss of 21k per person. The median return was -25%. Among retail investors with funds below 100k, the loss rate was as high as 98%-99%, with nearly everyone wiped out.

The de-leveraging process in storage companies like SanDisk, Micron, and SK hynix has been brutal; everyone is operating at a loss. Based on experience in the crypto market, a pullback of about 50% can be a spot to heavily position for a rebound. If the rebound is strong, you can go for the bottom and new highs can be seen; if the rebound is weak and it consolidates for a period of time, it will fall 70%-80%, wiping out all leverage.
Bottom-picking reference
SanDisk: 1200-1300 in the 50% range
Micron: 600-800
SK hynix: 1000-1200