Golden Finance: El orden de las políticas de Trump 2.0 y su impacto

Gold Ten Data News on December 27th, CITIC Securities believes that Trump’s future four-year governance may be based on two underlying logics. One is to correct the policies of the Biden administration, mainly reflected in controlling inflation, restricting immigration, and reducing government expenditure; the other is to implement mercantilist economic strategies, emphasizing protecting domestic industries and promoting exports through high tariffs, which is in contrast to the post-World War II American advocacy of trade liberalism. CITIC Securities believes that Trump may adopt a policy sequence of “tariffs first, then tax cuts, saving money first, then spending money”, taking the lead in implementing policies in the four areas of tariffs, immigration, energy, and foreign diplomacy, and tax cuts may be delayed or postponed due to the expansion of fiscal deficits. In the case of Indicador de referencia, it is predicted that Trump may push for partial tariffs to land in the second quarter of 2025, and the pace may be gradual. At the same time, the Republican Party may use the budget reconciliation process in 2025 to promote legislation, passing the first bill involving immigration, energy, and defense expenditure within the first 100 days of Trump taking office, which may include content on reducing fiscal spending. The tax reduction plan may be implemented in the second bill, possibly in the second half of the year.