The Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next week? There’s a 94% chance this is a done deal—the market’s memorized the script, now just waiting for the lead actor to come on stage and recite their lines.

To put it simply, there are three things:

1. This move is so transparent it shines: What does a 94% probability mean? It’s like when your mom calls you to eat, you know 100% she’s in the kitchen, the only suspense is whether today’s food is salty or not. The market’s already in position, just waiting for the official announcement.

2. TradFi’s been partying for a while: US stocks have risen three days in a row like they’re on steroids, bond yields are diving faster than someone jumping off a building, and the dollar index is as soft as yesterday’s steamed bun—Wall Street can’t wait to pop the champagne and celebrate the return of “easy money.”

3. Crypto market still pretending to sleep? This is a classic move: Bitcoin will very likely dip quietly at first to scare people, then after traditional funds are done partying, it’ll sneak back up. Don’t ask why—the answer is always “the whales love watching retail FOMO and hold the bag.”

To be honest—

A Fed rate cut sounds like a handout, but you have to figure out if it’s a shot in the arm for the market, or morphine for a dying economy. The first dose is always the strongest, but what happens when the effect wears off?

A few honest words:

· The moment expectations are realized is the most dangerous: The more certain the news, the more excited the retail crowd, the sharper the blades. History repeatedly proves “good news = top” is no joke.

· Don’t forget the premise of a rate cut: If the economy was really strong, would the Fed be so free as to cut rates? If it’s because the data collapsed and they’re forced to print money, then all risk assets are in trouble.

· Impulse is the devil’s brother: Going all in just because of a rate cut is basically donating to exchanges. The wolves love hunting these pure-hearted newbies.

Are you the optimist who never brings an umbrella when it rains, or the old fox who only goes out when the rain stops?

Hope your positions—are rock solid when they need to be, and run faster than a rabbit when it’s time to retreat.

Final disclaimer: This is just personal ranting, not investment advice. Rate cuts can’t cure greed—if you can’t control your hands, better delete the app and go to sleep.