Middle East tensions escalate, global risk aversion sentiment surges. The US government has paused some military operations while locking in 50 high-value targets, and multiple countries have warned citizens to evacuate, causing market uncertainty. This "quiet before the storm" situation is profoundly rewriting capital flows.

Gold and Bitcoin move in tandem, and this is no coincidence. Safe-haven funds continuously flow into "certainty assets," with BTC once breaking through 97,000 USDT, and spot trading volume soaring significantly for two consecutive days. The Fear & Greed Index remains high, institutional funds precisely allocate to BTC, while altcoins are largely ignored—fully demonstrating that the market is re-pricing risk.

Historically, during the initial phase of US-Iran conflicts, BTC usually experiences short-term adjustments, but as geopolitical tensions escalate, rebounds often occur. Currently, the narrative of "digital gold" is further strengthened, and Bitcoin’s safe-haven attribute is surfacing, with clear patterns in capital flow.

However, risks are also brewing. If a sudden military escalation occurs, global risk assets may be sold off simultaneously, potentially triggering liquidity crunches and long liquidations. In extreme scenarios, a decline in risk appetite will increase downward pressure.

Key variables to monitor are: the intensity of Iran’s counterattack, oil price fluctuations, and the linkage of global risk assets. Any loss of control over these factors could rewrite market trends.