#比特币2026年行情展望 The recent statements from high-level officials of the Federal Reserve basically shattered market expectations for rate cuts. Former Treasury Secretary Paulson and current officials like Schmied have spoken out sequentially, sending a particularly consistent signal: don’t expect any surprises soon, interest rates will remain high for a while longer.

Paulson straightforwardly said that current interest rates are already slightly above neutral levels, which effectively means applying brakes to the economy. Schmied went even further, believing that rates must be maintained at a level capable of continuously suppressing the economy, so that inflation, this hot potato, can be truly brought under control.

Let’s look at these key signals:

**Inflation remains the top challenge.** Although it has eased somewhat, pressure still exists. Schmied candidly stated that recklessly cutting rates would make inflation even harder to tackle, and market confidence in the Fed’s ability to achieve the 2% target is wavering.

**The labor market needs to "cool down" a bit.** Schmied’s view here is interesting — to prevent inflation from resurging, a moderate cooling of the labor market is actually necessary. He emphasized that continuing rate cuts are unlikely to lead to large-scale hiring by companies, which breaks many people’s expectations.

**Economic growth slowdown has other roots.** Schmied attributes the current slowdown mainly to structural factors rather than simple cyclical fluctuations. The implication is that the Fed’s policy tools are more adept at dealing with cyclical crises, but somewhat powerless against structural issues.

Overall, the Fed is showing a firm resolve: rather than being troubled by inflation for the long term, it’s better to endure the pain of slowing growth and slight employment decline now. The rate cut window will not open early; in fact, it might be further delayed.

In this high-interest-rate environment, the risk appetite in the crypto market also needs to adjust accordingly. What do you think? Is this tightening policy really for long-term economic health, or is it overcorrecting?