Simplely explain the current market situation of 大饼

Today early morning, after 大饼's price dropped, the whole day it has been stuck in the 95500-95800 range, repeatedly reaching above 95800 and then quickly falling back. This tug-of-war is a dual game between macro and technical factors.

On the macro side, December CPI remains steady at 2.6%, the probability of interest rate cuts in March exceeds 70%, combined with over 1.7 billion yuan in three days of ETF inflows, Blackstone's single-day inflow of 648 million yuan, providing support to the market. But tonight at 21:15, industrial output, at 23:00, real estate index, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials could all disturb the market.

From a technical perspective, the 95800 resistance is obvious, the 95500 support is firm, and volume hasn't shown extreme expansion, indicating that the bulls and bears are just temporarily fighting, not a trend reversal.

In the short term, we will see tonight's signals. If it breaks through, look at 96500; otherwise, it may test 95000. The three long-term logical factors—halving, compliance, and institutional entry—remain intact, and the volatility is just a buildup.