The Federal Reserve terjebak dalam dilema penurunan suku bunga: Powell mengakui keputusan Desember sulit, posisi pejabat sangat berbeda-beda

The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma in its policy decisions. Although inflation has eased, economic growth remains strong, making rate cut decisions particularly complex. In this context, clear policy divisions have emerged within the Fed, affecting not only traditional financial markets but also high-risk asset markets including cryptocurrency mining. When interest rate policies are uncertain, investors’ risk preferences shift directly, impacting the entire market ecosystem.

Fundamental Cause of the Division: The Tug-of-War Between Inflation and Neutral Interest Rate

The differing stances of Fed officials are rooted in varying assessments of the economic situation. Officials supporting rate cuts emphasize that inflationary pressures have significantly eased and that policy has ample room to adjust. New York Fed President Williams believes the Fed can “soon” cut rates without jeopardizing inflation targets. Similarly, Fed Governor Waller states that a rate cut in December is appropriate, though January’s actions remain uncertain.

Conversely, officials advocating caution highlight that current rates are near neutral levels, and premature easing could weaken anti-inflation efforts. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson notes that as rates approach neutral, policymakers must act cautiously. Kansas City Fed President Schmid bluntly states that further rate cuts could have long-term inflation impacts, having already opposed December cuts at the October meeting. Boston Fed President Collins believes current policy is appropriate and remains skeptical about a December rate cut.

Current Official Stances: Five Supporters, Six Reserves

Among the voting members in 2025, support for rate cuts is relatively weaker. Besides Williams, Waller, and Milan, who explicitly support “gradual small cuts,” Fed members Bowman and Cook, though not explicitly stating in November, lean overall toward supporting rate reductions. Milan even said that if her vote were decisive, she would support a small December cut—reflecting her strong support for policy flexibility. In previous meetings, she advocated for a 50 basis point cut.

The cautious camp is more united. Besides Jefferson, Schmid, and Collins, St. Louis Fed President Mester points out that policy is near neutral, with limited room to ease, requiring caution. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warns against over-early rate cuts: in the medium term, he is not aggressive, expecting rates to decline and possibly continue to do so, but first, this period must be navigated. Although Fed member Barr did not comment in November, he generally favors holding rates steady.

Perspectives of Non-Voting Officials

Among the non-voting members in 2025, opinions vary. San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a December cut, citing worsening labor market conditions. Dallas Fed President Logan believes that unless conditions change, another rate cut in December will be difficult. Philadelphia Fed President Harker is “cautious” about December’s rate decision, emphasizing that each cut raises the bar for the next. Cleveland Fed President Mester takes the strongest stance, warning that rate cuts to support the labor market could lead to prolonged high inflation and encourage risky behaviors in financial markets. She believes current rates are nearly restrictive and must be maintained to curb inflation.

Deep Market Impacts of Policy Divisions

This policy divergence directly increases market uncertainty. When there is no consensus within the Fed on policy direction, risk premiums tend to rise, often increasing volatility in risk assets. For industries highly sensitive to macro policies, such as cryptocurrency mining, this uncertainty is especially critical. The trajectory of interest rate policies directly affects liquidity in global risk assets and investors’ risk appetite. During rate-cutting cycles, investors tend to seek higher-yield assets, including cryptocurrencies; in environments of tightening or disagreement, funds are more likely to flow into safe assets.

The Fed’s upcoming decision will serve as an important market signal. If Powell ultimately supports a December rate cut, it will conflict with hawkish officials; if rates are held steady, it may not meet dovish expectations. This policy uncertainty will continue to influence the performance of all risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market. Investors should closely monitor the latest statements from Fed officials and economic data developments.