PANews January 10 News: According to Golden Ten, a Founder Securities research report states that December non-farm data was mixed, with the overall U.S. employment market showing a mild downward trend, but with marginal improvement in the unemployment rate, providing more reasons for the Federal Reserve to remain cautious in January. Combined with the Supreme Court's possible announcement that IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional, this could be short-term bullish for U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar, and bearish for U.S. Treasuries: data on new jobs, job vacancy rates, and wage growth show that the U.S. employment market in December remained relatively weak, but the marginal decline in the unemployment rate was one of the few bright spots. From interest rate futures and U.S. Treasury trends, markets are pricing in no rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, with the earliest possible rate cut potentially beginning in June.
At the same time, since the Supreme Court is expected to announce soon that IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional, this means economic expectations may improve marginally, with inflation pressure easing, though the fiscal deficit worsening. Under the combination of the Federal Reserve not rushing to cut rates and cooling tariffs, there are more unfavorable factors for U.S. Treasuries in the short term, with a higher probability of running at high levels. U.S. stocks benefit from AI prosperity momentum and reduced tariff disruptions, particularly with greater elasticity in sectors damaged by tariffs such as consumer staples and industrials.
