January 15 News, as the volatility of the US Treasury market continues to decline, the mid-term bull case for Bitcoin is gaining new macro support. Since 2026, Bitcoin’s price has risen approximately 10%, and several analysts believe its price could retake the $100,000 level for the first time since November last year.
US Treasuries are regarded as core assets in the global financial system, with extremely low credit risk, and are widely used as collateral for loans, derivatives, and various financial transactions. When Treasury prices fluctuate sharply, the financial system tends to tighten, market risk appetite decreases, and stocks and crypto assets come under pressure; conversely, when the Treasury market remains stable and the credit environment improves, funds are more inclined to flow into high-risk, high-return assets.
Latest data shows that this favorable environment is taking shape. According to TradingView data, the ICE BofA MOVE index, which measures implied volatility of US Treasuries over the next four weeks, has fallen to 58, reaching its lowest level since October 2021, and continuing the downward trend since April 2025. This indicates a significant easing of tension in the US bond market, providing more favorable external conditions for risk assets.
Historically, although Bitcoin is often called “digital gold,” its price movements are more akin to tech stocks and are highly correlated with the Nasdaq 100 index, while showing a clear inverse relationship with the MOVE index. During the deep correction of Bitcoin in 2022, the MOVE index was at high levels; the rebound since 2023 has closely coincided with the continued decline in bond volatility.
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $96,000. Against the backdrop of declining US bond volatility, warming risk appetite, and continuous ETF fund inflows, market expectations for further upside are heating up. Some investors believe that as long as the macro environment remains stable, the probability of breaking through the $100,000 mark is increasing.
However, potential risks still exist. If new tensions arise in the Middle East or if US crypto regulation legislation progresses slower than expected, market sentiment could be disturbed. Even so, from the perspective of macro liquidity and bond market signals, Bitcoin’s bull market foundation in 2026 is becoming more solid.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
The cryptocurrency fear index has dropped to 9, with the market continuing to maintain "extreme fear."
The current cryptocurrency market fear and greed index has dropped to 9, indicating extreme fear in the market, well below yesterday's 12 and last month's average of 13. This index consolidates multiple indicators to assess market sentiment.
BlockBeatNews10m ago
Bitcoin Sell-Off Reveals Whale-Driven Rotation as Retail Capitulates and Leverage Resets
_Whales drove the sell-off, absorbed liquidity, while retail exited and leverage flushed across the market._
Bitcoin’s recent price action points to a calculated liquidity event rather than broad market weakness. A sharp decline initially appeared tied to macro uncertainty, but the underlying
LiveBTCNews1h ago
CEO of Goldman Sachs admits to holding Bitcoin amid accelerating institutionalization
David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, acknowledged holding a small amount of Bitcoin in February 2026, contrasting with his 2024 stance of viewing it as speculative. This reflects Wall Street's deepening involvement in crypto, amid legal constraints. The positive community reaction suggests a normalization of Bitcoin among affluent individual and institutional investors.
TapChiBitcoin1h ago
Since the "1011 crash," the BTC ETF has recovered $3 billion in outflows, and the fund flows for the year are close to flat.
According to Bloomberg's data, from October 2025 to the end of February 2026, Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of approximately $9 billion, with about $3 billion recovered so far. Although the overall net outflow still exceeds $6 billion, the inflow and outflow of funds in 2026 have nearly balanced out.
GateNews1h ago
