February 25 News: Bitcoin has fallen approximately 28% this month. Although recent prices are close to previous highs, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode warns that there may still be downward pressure over the next 5 to 6 months.
Glassnode’s report shows that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit and Loss Ratio (RPR) for Bitcoin has fallen below 1, an indicator that typically reflects selling pressure and investor sentiment in the market. Historical data indicates that when the RPR drops below 1, a bear market often lasts at least six months. The company notes that when the RPR rises back above 1, it usually signals a easing of selling pressure.
The report compares the current situation with bear markets in 2022 and 2018. In the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin’s price declined about 25% within six months after the RPR fell below 1; in the similar market conditions of 2018, Bitcoin dropped over 50% within five months. Glassnode’s analysis suggests that if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin could continue its downward trend for several more months.
The realized profit and loss ratio measures the proportion of actual gains versus losses on the Bitcoin network, providing an intuitive view of selling pressure from long-term holders and overall market sentiment. Analysts advise investors to closely monitor RPR changes and key support levels to assess potential risks and rebound opportunities.
Overall, while Bitcoin shows a technical rebound in the short term, selling pressure has not significantly eased. Long-term holders and new investors should remain cautious to prepare for the possibility of continued decline.
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