According to market dynamics and comprehensive information as of April 30, 2025, the current price of Bitcoin is approximately **$94,900**, in a high-level consolidation phase. Below is today's market analysis and strategy recommendations:

1. Technical Analysis
1. Key Points
Support levels: $93,000 (short-term EMA support), $92,000 (strong psychological support).
Resistance level: $95,000 (breakthrough may challenge $100,000), $96,000-$97,000 (recent high resistance).
If it falls below $92,000, it may pull back to the $85,000 area; a breakout above $95,000 could accelerate the upward trend.
2. Technical Indicators
MACD: Bearish momentum is weakening, with signs of a short-term shift to bullish.
RSI: Above 50, indicating that market momentum is relatively strong, but be wary of overbought risks.
EMA: Short-term moving averages (such as 7-day, 30-day) are trending upward, supporting the price.
2. Market Sentiment and Risk Factors
1. Emotion-driven market
The market has been highly sensitive to news recently (such as rumors of tariff delays triggered by fake news), resulting in severe price fluctuations, and emotional trading should be approached with caution. Retail investor leverage is relatively high, with over 210,000 liquidations within 24 hours, resulting in a loss of $635 million. The risks associated with high leverage need to be guarded against.
2. Macroeconomic Risk
Federal Reserve Policy: This week, attention should be paid to the CPI, PPI data, and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. If the inflation data exceeds expectations, it may affect interest rate cut expectations.
Geopolitics: The progress of the China-US trade agreement and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy may trigger market fluctuations.
Black swan event: Although the rumors of Satoshi Nakamoto's identity being exposed or significant holding changes are low probability, systemic risks still need to be monitored.
3. Investment Strategy Recommendations
1. Short-term trading
Long Strategy: If the price pulls back to around $93,000, you can enter with a small position, setting the stop loss below $92,000, with a target of $95,000-$96,000.
Short Selling Strategy: If the price reaches the resistance zone of $96,000-$97,000 and shows signs of stagnation, you can attempt a short position, with the stop loss set above $97,500 and the target at $94,000.
2. Medium to long-term positions
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Long-term investors can build their positions in batches to avoid entering at a high price all at once, smoothing out cost fluctuations.
Take profit and position management: If holding spot, it is recommended to take profit in batches above $95,000, retaining some position to bet on higher targets; keep total position control within 50%-70%.
3. Risk Control
Strict stop loss: Regardless of long or short, a stop loss must be set (recommended range of $500-800).
Avoid high leverage: The current volatility (intraday fluctuations often exceeding 10%) is not suitable for high-multiple contract trading.
4. Institutional Trends and Market Signals
Institutional capital inflow: Bitcoin ETF continues to attract funds (like BlackRock, Fidelity), MicroStrategy and other companies increase holdings to support demand.
Technical upgrades: The popularization of the Lightning Network and the expansion of smart contracts may enhance Bitcoin's practicality, benefiting its long-term value.
Regulatory Dynamics: If the Trump administration's pro-crypto policies (such as the national Bitcoin reserve plan) are implemented, they could become a catalyst for price increases.
5. Key Focus Events
1. Today's data: US April CPI data (if it exceeds expectations, it may cause market fluctuations).
2. Technical breakthrough: Can $95,000 hold steady and challenge the psychological level of $100,000.
3. On-chain metrics: The number of holding addresses, net inflow to exchanges, and other data reflect market supply and demand.
Summary
Today's Bitcoin market is mainly characterized by high-level fluctuations, with short-term attention on the breakout direction of the $93,000-$95,000 range. It is recommended to operate flexibly by combining technical signals with macro events, prioritizing risk control, and avoiding chasing highs and selling lows. In the long term, institutional capital inflow and the halving effect remain the foundation for a bull market, but it is necessary to be wary of the impacts of policies and black swan events.