1️⃣ Macroeconomic Policy Shock: CPI Anxiety + Tariff Panic - US CPI expectation disturbance: the market bets that today's inflation at 20:30 will be >3.4% (if true, it will reverse the September rate cut expectation), and the strengthening dollar suppresses risk assets. - Trump's tariff policy: Imposing a 30% tariff on the EU/Mexico (effective August 1), raising concerns about a trade war, institutions reduce BTC holdings to hedge against stock market risks. 2️⃣ Technical overbought correction and leverage liquidation - Key resistance suppression: reached $122,431 (weekly Fibonacci 0.786 resistance), historical deep retracement zone. - Long and short liquidation chain reaction: - Below $120,000, there is a strong liquidation zone for $775 million in long positions, breaking the level triggers a chain liquidation; - The $800 million level short squeeze above $118,500 has exhausted the buying power. - Indicator Overbought: 30-minute RSI reached 78.9 (seriously overbought), Fear and Greed Index surged to 70 (greed zone). 3️⃣ Market structure changes: Altcoin siphoning effect - BTC market cap share falls below 64.4% (7-month trend line broken), funds shifting to ETH, SOL and other altcoins, diverting BTC funds. 4️⃣ Divergence between institutional and retail behavior - Institutions temporarily paused: ETF inflows dropped from a peak of $1.18 billion to $309 million (July 14), BlackRock is watching the CPI. - Retail FOMO recedes: When BTC broke $120,000, global search volume only increased by 8%, indicating a lack of broad support for the rise. --- 💎 Summary: The trend is not broken, but short-term risks are increasing. > Fall below the essence: "Event-driven (CPI + tariffs) + technical correction + leverage liquidation" resonance result, not the end of the bull market. > Key Observation: CPI data (20:30): If <3.0% or triggers a short squeeze rebound, >3.4% then it will test the $114,000 support; BTC market cap ratio: If it falls below 62%, the altcoin season officially starts, need to adjust the portfolio to ETH/SOL. Current Strategy: > Do not blindly catch the falling knife after a breakdown, wait for CPI to settle! Strictly adhere to stop-loss. #BTC再创新高##散户 #
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📉 fall below $120,000's core driving force
1️⃣ Macroeconomic Policy Shock: CPI Anxiety + Tariff Panic
- US CPI expectation disturbance: the market bets that today's inflation at 20:30 will be >3.4% (if true, it will reverse the September rate cut expectation), and the strengthening dollar suppresses risk assets.
- Trump's tariff policy: Imposing a 30% tariff on the EU/Mexico (effective August 1), raising concerns about a trade war, institutions reduce BTC holdings to hedge against stock market risks.
2️⃣ Technical overbought correction and leverage liquidation
- Key resistance suppression: reached $122,431 (weekly Fibonacci 0.786 resistance), historical deep retracement zone.
- Long and short liquidation chain reaction:
- Below $120,000, there is a strong liquidation zone for $775 million in long positions, breaking the level triggers a chain liquidation;
- The $800 million level short squeeze above $118,500 has exhausted the buying power.
- Indicator Overbought: 30-minute RSI reached 78.9 (seriously overbought), Fear and Greed Index surged to 70 (greed zone).
3️⃣ Market structure changes: Altcoin siphoning effect
- BTC market cap share falls below 64.4% (7-month trend line broken), funds shifting to ETH, SOL and other altcoins, diverting BTC funds.
4️⃣ Divergence between institutional and retail behavior
- Institutions temporarily paused: ETF inflows dropped from a peak of $1.18 billion to $309 million (July 14), BlackRock is watching the CPI.
- Retail FOMO recedes: When BTC broke $120,000, global search volume only increased by 8%, indicating a lack of broad support for the rise.
---
💎 Summary: The trend is not broken, but short-term risks are increasing.
> Fall below the essence: "Event-driven (CPI + tariffs) + technical correction + leverage liquidation" resonance result, not the end of the bull market.
> Key Observation:
CPI data (20:30): If <3.0% or triggers a short squeeze rebound, >3.4% then it will test the $114,000 support;
BTC market cap ratio: If it falls below 62%, the altcoin season officially starts, need to adjust the portfolio to ETH/SOL.
Current Strategy:
> Do not blindly catch the falling knife after a breakdown, wait for CPI to settle! Strictly adhere to stop-loss.
#BTC再创新高# #散户 #