Market Report for August 16

1. Core Judgment of ETH Market

ETH is currently facing the biggest test of this main upward wave, influenced by the pressure from historical peaks, with a low probability of a strong breakout in the short term. If it fails to return to the 4800 level in the next two days to attempt a breakthrough, it may face 1-2 weeks or even longer of sideways accumulation.

2. External Environment and Cycle Support

- Trump's meeting with Putin may ease local conflicts, which is positive for risk assets;
- The daily trend of the US stock market is normal, the previous sharp decline has been corrected and reached a new high;
- The probability of interest rate cuts in September remains significant, and external systemic risks are controllable;
- According to the 4-year cycle of the cryptocurrency market, the peak may be seen as soon as October, leaving about a month and a half for operation. (This wave is led by institutions, and it is highly likely to go higher and last longer.)

3. Analysis of Core Buying Power of Ethereum

BMNT purchased 28,650 ETH (worth $130 million) in the past 24 hours to hedge against ETF outflows. Regarding the claims of "fake holdings", it is impossible to rely solely on fabrication for large-scale reserves; negative news should be viewed rationally.

IV. Core Viewpoint: The Bull Market's Pullback Tests Human Nature Even More

- During a bear market, buy in batches and hold firmly (the price is at a value low);
- During a bull market pullback, profit taking tests decision-making, as the "loss aversion" psychology can easily influence judgment;
- Conclusion: Although the resistance at 5000 is significant, the potential for gains after a breakthrough is substantial. One should hold onto their positions and avoid chasing after the price increases post-breakthrough.