From Meme Coin to CS:GO Skins: The Cycle of Virtual Assets

As the craze for Meme coins gradually fades, some speculators who once thrived in it are turning their attention to the CS:GO skin market. These former "Meme hunters" have transformed into "skin flippers," viewing CS:GO skins as the next wealth code.

CS:GO was officially released on August 21, 2012, introduced the weapon case and skin system in 2013, and allowed trading on the market, laying the foundation for its cosmetic economy. After multiple updates and attempts to make it free, CS:GO's cosmetic market has continued to thrive for twelve years.

However, in May 2025, the CS cosmetic market suddenly collapsed. The cosmetic index plummeted by 20% within three days, and the prices of several popular trading varieties nearly halved, sparking heated discussions among users. For coin traders, this scene of market collapse is all too familiar; it's just that this time what they hold in their hands is "virtual gun skin" instead of cryptocurrency.

Players who have long felt happiness due to the appreciation of skins suddenly lost their joy overnight. This hyped market reveals its fragility, as these skins, similar to NFTs, have plummeted like Meme coins. How did they attract followers, and what kind of impact will they bring?

Making money, a handy thing

In April 2025, when the Meme coin market was dull, the CS:GO skins market was booming, attracting the attention of many players from the cryptocurrency world.

This all dates back to the Arms Deal update in 2013. Skins (also known as "cosmetics", essentially graphic overlays that modify the appearance of weapons in CS) were first introduced at that time and could only be obtained through random drops in the game.

This has ushered in the era of the "loot box lottery" wealth game. To acquire the rarely obtainable skins, players have gradually begun to trade spontaneously. The rise of skin trading websites has further propelled the prosperity of the market, giving birth to a comprehensive ecosystem—including players, trading platforms, streamers, "flipping", black markets, and data tools.

For most people who have experienced the ups and downs in the CS:GO skin market, it started out just for the gaming experience.

In 2019, the college student Mantou began to get into CS:GO. At first, the game was just a game. He said: "After playing for a while, I wanted to buy skins," which is perfectly normal for players.

For CS:GO players, skins are not just decorations, but more like a form of social currency. High-quality or rare skins highlight a player's status in the community and satisfy their vanity. This naturally creates a demand for the circulation of these items, which in turn gives rise to a corresponding market.

As he deepened his understanding of the market, Mantou noticed a significant increase in skin prices. As a cash-strapped college student, he developed the idea of "speculating on skins."

His first small profit wasn't much—"I made a few hundred at first, and I was happy for a few days."

For Mantou, buying skins and playing games are more like complementary activities. He doesn't have a specific trading strategy, "it's just that I wanted to play, so I went and bought it," but the fluctuations in the skin market also prompt him to return to CS:GO. For example, this April, he got back into the game because he heard that "skins are very popular."

In fact, CS:GO and its derived cosmetic economy do indeed promote each other.

A well-known KOL once took the initiative to study the market economy created by this game out of curiosity. In his view, the lasting wealth effect of the CS:GO skin market is closely related to the attributes of the game itself.

"As a shooter game, the game mode of CS:GO is very simple and has not changed much compared to its initial development." Additionally, the developers often use events to stimulate interest, which can quickly attract old players to return due to nostalgia or other factors.

While being able to quickly attract or retain old players, the promotion by esports streamers has also lowered the threshold, attracting a steady stream of "new generation forces" (mainly college students) into the market, forming the incremental growth of this market.

Vanity drives players to trade skin items, and the allure of making money continuously attracts both new and old players, making play-to-earn the best footnote for the CS:GO game and skin economy.

Let the prices of accessories soar

The price range of CS:GO's skin market is astonishing, ranging from ordinary skins worth a few yuan to rare treasures worth tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, all of which form this unique ecosystem. It resembles the tiering of coins in the crypto world—ordinary skins are like "air coins," while top-tier items like the Dragon Lore and Butterfly Knife are comparable to well-known projects in the NFT space, with their prices constantly breaking records due to scarcity and consensus premium.

A large number of common weapon cases and skins of ordinary quality are located at the lower end of the price spectrum. For example, a certain weapon case may be sold for about 2.5 yuan, and these items are relatively easy to obtain with a large supply, thus their prices are affordable, meeting the basic personalization needs of most players.

Entering the mid-price range, the prices of accessories usually range from tens to hundreds of yuan. Accessories in this range often feature better appearance design, a certain level of rarity, or serve more popular weapons.

In the high-end market, prices show exponential growth, with jewelry often priced in the thousands or even tens of thousands of yuan. These are usually extremely rare knives, gloves, and those legendary or exceedingly rare top-tier firearm skins. A brand new skin that records kill counts and comes with rare stickers can have a recommended price of around 130,000 yuan on second-hand platforms.

These high-priced accessories have exceeded the game items themselves and are regarded as collectibles and investment items.

Overall, factors such as the aesthetic appeal, wear level, rarity, style of the accessories, the operations of accessory merchants ("flippers"), student holidays, new drops, and even the influencer effect all impact their market prices. Official markets and third-party trading websites also play an important role in shaping the CS:GO skin market.

Even if the influencing factors can be rationally sorted out, the unpredictable rise and fall of accessory prices is still surprising. This kind of whimsy is common in both the CS:GO accessory market and the coin circle.

When CS:GO announced its upgrade to CS2 in 2023, many high-priced skins and rare stickers saw a price increase. However, just a few months later, when CS2 officially launched, many skins experienced a significant price drop due to changes in display effects or adjustments to the drop mechanisms, leaving many players who bought in at high prices "trapped". Similarly, a related token launched by a certain political figure just before taking office once thrived, but the price of the coin collapsed instantly after they took office, leaving a mess behind.

However, the price fluctuations and transactions of accessories, seemingly as random and free as memes, are actually under the control of game developers. The entire economic ecosystem surrounding accessories must be adjusted according to the studio's rules, with developers holding absolute initiative.

Some analysis points out that "it (the developer) goes to control all the probabilities and the rarity of each skin that pops out, and can even tell you where to go." Even the display effects of skins in the game can change due to game updates, "why does CS2 have such a significant impact on prices? Because the developer changed the display of some skins in the game, some look better, and some look worse."

In CS:GO, the skins are financial products that can soar, but looking down, the string of this kite is always held in the hands of the developers.

Extremely speaking, there is a risk in the jewelry market that "if the developers update tomorrow, skins may no longer be freely traded." As Mantou said: "You cannot control changes in developer policies, and NFTs operate better in this regard."

Coin Circle Story, Jewelry Market Reenactment

The financial attributes of accessories and their price fluctuations have made many in the crypto space exclaim, "Isn't this just NFTs!".

This is not nonsense; in fact, the "play-to-earn" effect that it inadvertently achieves aligns perfectly with the "play to earn" that GameFi design aims for.

Although CS:GO items can be used in the game, this creates a distinction in practicality compared to NFTs. Mantou stated, "Some expensive items are indeed beautiful," but in fact, this is only a small part.

"The skin has no real function, not even an additional three attack power." For the vast young player base, accessories carry more complex psychological needs and social significance; they are a concentrated embodiment of the pursuit of aesthetics, face culture, and status symbols, which is strikingly similar to the role NFTs play in certain circles.

A professional jewelry trading website describes a max gold print from the 2022 Antwerp Championship, stating that it "is not just a simple sticker, but a symbol of identity." "While it may not enhance your skills, it will definitely enhance your gaming experience and prestige."

In addition to the symbolic attributes of social identity, the two also have similarities in price driving factors.

Analysis has pointed out that the prices of specific items in CS:GO can rise due to the celebrity effect of streamers and esports players using them, while NFTs, primarily serving as a status symbol, also require some celebrity effect to drive their prices.

The endorsement from celebrities brought by superstar purchases can drive up the floor price of NFTs, causing prices to skyrocket by hundreds or even thousands of times in a short period. However, once market sentiment shifts, liquidity tightens, or negative news about the project itself emerges, NFT prices may plummet dramatically in a short time, resulting in heavy losses for those who bought at high prices.

Coincidentally, after the crash of CS:GO skins, the crypto market and Meme trends have quietly warmed up again. Ethereum, which had been dormant for a long time, saw a nearly 40% increase in the past 7 days, breaking through $2500, and several old coins have also warmed up one after another. Some even speculate that funds are flowing between different virtual assets, creating an alternative "vampire effect". Although it cannot be directly proven, this coincidence of fund movement has become a topic of conversation in the crypto community during tea breaks.

Opportunities and risks always accompany each other. Before May, CS:GO players who had been steadily happy for a while faced this unprecedented price crash.

Mantou previously earned 50,000 RMB from the appreciation of accessories, but overnight it vanished and turned into a loss of 70,000. When discussing his views on this decline, he, who has "played in the crypto circle for too long," appeared quite calm, believing that compared to the previous declines that were like "a dull knife cutting meat" with very little trading volume, this drop has a significant magnitude and a fairly decent trading volume. If the accessory market can attract more attention and gradually recover, it should be a good thing.

After all, the story of cyber speculation will never end, from Meme coins to CS:GO skins. The market, emotions, greed, and fear are always cycling through different tracks.

The only constant is that financial freedom is always out of reach, and there will always be someone to take over at a high position.