#TopContentChallenge Warning for Bitcoin: There may be a final drop before a big rally.

Bitcoin has been enjoying its recent "price discovery" rally over the past six weeks, but it is now time for a correction.
Analysis shows that in previous halving cycles, the price of Bitcoin tends to peak in the second rally within five to seven weeks.
The new drop could now allow for new highs in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin (BTC) may start the last week of "price discovery rally" on Monday with the price remaining below $120,000.
New evidence suggests that the price of Bitcoin is running out of time to achieve new highs.
Bitcoin has reached the classic "price discovery correction" zone.
If Bitcoin follows historical patterns, it risks maintaining its all-time high of $124,500.
Bitcoin is about to enter the seventh week of the "second price discovery rally" since the 2024 halving.
After each halving event, the subsequent bull market consists of a series of these upward trends, each accompanied by a correction. The timing of each phase throughout the life of Bitcoin has been largely similar.
Historically, Bitcoin price discovery 1 tends to usually conclude between weeks 6 and 8 of the trend. In Bitcoin price discovery 2, Bitcoin tends to finish its rally between weeks 5 and 7.
"The seventh week of the rally of price discovery 2 begins tomorrow."
A related chart from earlier this year illustrates the potential target for the second rally at around $160,000.
"However, if we critically look at the corrections of previous price discoveries... only one of them started in week 8 (2017), one in week 6 (2021), and two in week 7 (2013 and 2025)," as mentioned in the July bulletin on this subject.
The first correction phase for Bitcoin took place in 2025, with the price dropping from around $110,000 to less than $75,000. This represents a decline of about 30 percent, a figure that is not unusual in previous halving cycles.
New peak for Bitcoin price in the fourth quarter?
Currently, it seems that BTCUSD did not register "August" and "September" "green" consecutively.
The end of the withdrawal of ETH worth $3.8 billion poses a risk to billions of dollars in long positions.
However, the decline may pave the way for a larger cyclical peak towards the end of the year.
"In most years of the bull market, we have seen a rapid recovery followed by an explosive rally in the fourth quarter,"
"There will be a need for a bigger rally in the next two months, and that may be the last major drop of the year-end rally. It's okay if it doesn't happen, but I think it will push towards a larger long-term peak."
It appears that BTCUSD increased by 2.1% in August, with an average slightly above 1.8%. In contrast, the month of September saw an average price drop of 3.8%.