Don't panic! Shen Ce speaks: ETH at $4064 is a life-and-death battle, the opening of the US stock market tonight will reveal the outcome!

The crypto market is like an absurd play without a script, and the wise can always read between the lines amidst the chaos. Last night's waterfall plunge of ETH made countless people exclaim "The wolf is coming!", but the truth is often hidden beneath the surface—this plunge is not only an inevitable adjustment from a technical perspective but also a signal of the undercurrents of institutional funds.

Last night's plummet: It seemed unexpected, but in fact, the "script was already written".

Last night's ETH price movement can be regarded as a "textbook case" of technical analysis. In the afternoon, there was a wave of pullback, with the price soaring to $4340 before the US stock market opened, only to slide down like a slippery slope to $4064. This was not a "random market fluctuation," but rather a "premature warning" from key technical indicators: the 30-minute RSI fell to 22.7, indicating an oversold area, which means the short-term decline was too rapid and there might be a rebound opportunity; however, the 4-hour MACD remains in a bearish divergence state, and the downward pressure has not yet been fully released. More critically, this rebound happened to be caught in the "liquidity trap" just before the US stock market opened—institutional funds seized the opportunity while retail investors were chasing high prices, and turned around to sell, directly pushing the price down.

For example: it's like when you're shopping and you see a store having a sale, you excitedly rush in, only to find out it's a "clearance sale" trick, and the owner had already calculated that you would fall for it. The movement of ETH last night was precisely the "technical trap" set by institutions for retail investors.

Institutional funds: The "undercurrents" behind the crash.

Despite the dramatic drop in prices, institutional funds are quietly "buying the dip." Data shows that Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $2.9 billion in a single week, accounting for 80% of the total inflows into crypto ETFs, with cumulative inflows in August exceeding $11 billion. What does this mean? It equates to $160 million of "smart money" buying ETH every day.

But why is the price still falling? This is because the derivatives market is "at play." The open interest in futures has reached a new high of $60.8 billion, with nearly 90% of long positions being liquidated, indicating that leveraged traders have been "bloodied" in this wave. Institutional funds are taking the opportunity to accumulate at low levels, collecting the retail investors' chips.

Today's trend: a little tussle during the day, and a "final battle at the Forbidden City" at night.

Risk control is a "lifesaver": the risk of a single trade should not exceed 2-3% of the principal. Be cautious of the volatility amplification effect at the opening of the US stock market in the evening, and pay attention to the expectations of Federal Reserve policies and the trend of the US dollar index.

The cryptocurrency market has never been a "get-rich-quick" casino, but rather a battlefield for "monetizing cognition." The sharp decline of ETH last night was a "reshuffling" by institutions, and also a "layout" by smart investors. As analyst James Seyffart said: "The continuous net inflow of funds into the Ethereum ETF marks that institutions regard it as a 'core digital asset' for strategic allocation."

Currently, ETH is struggling around $4100, and the real contest is just beginning. After the U.S. stock market opens tonight, institutional fund flows and macro sentiment will determine the next key direction. Will you choose to be led by market sentiment, or will you calmly analyze and seize the opportunity? #晒出我的Alpha积分#